Our gut told us 2026-27 Topps Flagship Basketball was a Rip, at MSRP. At $169.99, Hobby Boxes are the play. At $274.95, they aren’t.
The Fanatics/Topps drops have come and gone. It’s secondary-market pricing forever now for hobby formats. Prices have fallen a little since yesterday. Blowout is now selling Hobby Boxes for $249.95 and Jumbo Hobby Boxes for $499.95.
Here’s a thought we had during the Wax Watch that’s been nagging us all day. The money for one Hobby Box might go further in retail. Are we going to regret our choice to pick up two Hobby Boxes on pre-order? What format actually has the most value now?
Well, the odds sheet dropped.
Let’s rip in.
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What the Numbers Say
Base Card Parallels
It looks like the trend continues. Flagship is so heavily printed that every parallel is a tough pull. You aren’t even guaranteed a Gold /2026 out of a Hobby Box. It’s been a real problem this year, and it’s been tanking the fun factor for each of the three major sports’ Flagship releases.
There’s a lot of exclusivity between the different formats in this release. Hobby formats have the Rainbow Foil colors, Jumbo has Sandglitter, Hangers have the Diamantes, and Value has Season Tip Off. For the Rainbow Foil colors, expected spend between Hobby and Jumbo is basically the same.
For hobby formats, if you don’t want the exclusives, you’re pretty much wasting your money with the exception of one type of card, and it’s the most sought-after variation in the product.
Golden Mirrors are tough pulls no matter where you’re trying to pull them. They come in three tiers, each more rare than the last. But whatever the tier, Hobby Boxes come in at a little more than half the expected spend of the next best format, Value Boxes.
Outside of the Golden Mirrors, retail takes over. At a glance, the best format for parallels from a general sense is the Fanatics Value Box. They consistently rank first across most non-exclusive parallels as well as the retail-exclusive Holo Foils. That includes Clear Variations, which have been Hobby Box exclusives for the longest time in Topps’ baseball lineup. But now, they’ve opened it up. Fanatics is your best bet (though you’re looking at one in about every 3,400 boxes), and Hobby and Jumbo Hobby are the worst.
Fat Packs are best for Gold /2026s and the base Rainbow Foilboard, with standard Mega Boxes not far behind on the Rainbow Foilboard. The All-Star Megas come in last for both, and for the Golden Mirrors too.
We’d be remised if we didn’t let you know that two things on the odds sheet look a little off to us. Strangely, there are no odds for pulling Golden Mirror Image Variations of any of the three tiers in the Jumbo Hobby Box. We can’t imagine that’s actually true, so we’re wondering if it’s a typo. And the Aqua Holo Foil is 1:500 packs in every retail format. That looks like a placeholder to us, so take the Aqua row in the Index with a grain of salt.
The expected pulls info tells a different story. The Black Friday Value Boxes have the best dollar per parallel of any format ($2.64), with Fanatics Value Boxes a close second ($3.33). Hobby and Jumbo Hobby Boxes rank amongst the worst in the lineup, and the secondary-market prices only make it worse.
But not all parallels are created equal. Numbered cards are where it’s at. The lower the number, the better. For those, you’re targeting completely different formats.
The All-Star Game Mega Boxes have the best dollar per numbered card ($64.79), averaging a little less than one per box. Jumbo Hobby is second best because it averages 5.43 numbered cards out of each box.
Inserts
If inserts are your jam, then there are only a handful of formats you should be looking at.
Start with the 1981-82 Topps inserts. It’s an iconic design with a ton of names on the checklist. Lots of people try and set collect this one. If you’re one of them, look no further than Fat Packs and Mega Boxes. Those two are going to be your cheapest way in. Avoid Hobby like the plague for these. The expected spend is more than four times as much.
All of the other more common inserts (Stars of NBA, Drivers, Poster Factory, Generation Now, etc.) are best found in either of the two Mega Box formats. Hobby and Jumbo are the worst again.
Moving on to the SSPs, things finally start to get a little interesting. If you’d be satisfied just to pull a base SSP insert, then the Hobby Box is where you want to put your money. Hobby Boxes have the cheapest expected spend for Class of 26, Hardwood Stars, Bounce, and most importantly All Kings.
Quick correction from our Wax Watch. All Kings aren’t limited to hobby formats. They’re in every format, but Hobby is still the cheapest place to chase one.
But parallels are a different story. If you’re shooting your shot and want to go for a 1/1 Gold All Kings or any of the other non-exclusive SSP insert parallels, the best option out there is the Fanatics Value Box.
For the two retail-exclusive SSPs (Soundcheck and Certified Cold), Hangers are definitely bangers here, with an expected spend well below the next best, Fat Packs. For the two inserts exclusive to hobby formats (Comic Court and Quest for the Crown), Jumbo Hobby outpaces standard Hobby by a wide margin.
What format ranks best here is actually a toss-up. Mega Boxes (both standard and All-Star Game) are far and away the best formats for pulling common inserts and their parallels. But if you’re chasing grails, hobby formats are the better choice here.
The expected pulls charts all but confirm this.
The All-Star Game Megas ($1.80) and standard Megas ($1.82) have the best dollar per insert, while Hobby ($17.31) and Jumbo ($18.57) bring up the rear.
Flip to the SSPs, and it’s the opposite. Jumbo ($2,985) and Hobby ($3,030) lead the way, and no retail format comes in under $16,600.
Autos & Relics
They finally did it.
Congrats to Dave & Adam’s, Steel City, and Blowout for raising the prices of Hobby formats so high that they’re no longer the most valuable format for the autos and relics that are guaranteed in the box.
This wasn’t supposed to be the case. Even at the MSRP price that’s still inflated from the year before, these formats had the best expected spend for pulling autos.
Real One Autos are now better pulled from a Fat Pack. Same goes for the 1981-82 Autos and the all-new Rookie Photo Shoot Autographs. Parallels too.
Every relic is actually best pulled from the All-Star Game Megas, but if you’re looking for relics now, look for Fat Packs.
Far and away the worst format to look for any autos and relics is actually the Hanger Box. It’s dead last in every single row it shows up in on the Value Index.
Jumbo and Hobby still rank second and third best when it comes to autos, but across the board in this category, we gotta give it to the Fat Packs.
Breaking it down to dollar per auto and dollar per relic shows pretty much the same thing. Fat Packs have the best dollar per auto ($349.50), ahead of Jumbo ($438.20) and Hobby ($451.22). The All-Star Game Megas have the best dollar per relic ($250.65), with Fat Packs right behind ($292.24).
We’ll give credit where credit is due, though. The per-box odds of pulling an auto aren’t as atrocious as they have been in the past for Hobby Boxes. For this release, you’re looking at pulling an auto in about every other Hobby Box, on average.
Popular Chase Cards
At current pricing, here’s where the lowest average spend lands for the most popular chases:
Gold — Fat Packs
Base Foilfractors — Jumbo Hobby Boxes
Clear Variations — Fanatics Value Boxes
Golden Mirror Image Variations — Hobby Boxes
Class of 26 — Hobby Boxes
All Kings — Hobby Boxes
All Kings Gold — Fanatics Value Boxes
Real One Autos — Fat Packs
Rookie Photo Shoot Autographs — Fat Packs
These rankings will shift as sealed pricing adjusts.
The odds stay fixed. The market doesn’t.
Most Valuable Format?
We’re not regretting our Hobby Box pickup like we thought we might. We got in at a decent price, so the value is still there. But if we didn’t get in at pre-order, we wouldn’t dream of getting one now. And here’s why.
If you were to spend the same amount of money on retail as you would one Hobby Box, you’d get significantly more out of it. Fat Packs in particular would give you more of everything. In the 35 Fat Packs you’d open for the same amount of money, you’d net triple the parallels, pull about 5.5x more inserts, pull slightly more numbered cards, plus have a better shot at pulling an auto and a relic.
Jumbo holds up a little better. For the same $499.95, it still out-pulls 71 Fat Packs on numbered cards, but that’s where its edge ends.
With today’s pricing, there are two formats that stand out, and neither of them are hobby formats. If prices were still at MSRP, it might have gone to the Jumbo Hobby Box, as it would have had the best spend for both autos and SSP inserts. But now, there’s a better place to find autos, and with about a 1.5% chance of pulling an All Kings in your Hobby Box, we’re not going to pretend we’re going to pull one in ours.
All-Star Mega Boxes have the best dollar-per in half of all categories, including numbered cards and relics. Those definitely sound like they’ll be worth the wait. The other format we’re looking at is the Fat Pack, the format with the best dollar per auto and second-best dollar per relic.
It’s a tough call to make. So we’re not gonna. With All-Star Game Megas coming out February 11th, we’ll say Fat Packs now, and All-Star Megas later.
Our verdict hasn’t changed. It’s still a Rip, at MSRP. These days, that just means retail.
👉 Verdict: Rip, at MSRP
🏆 Most Valuable Format(s): Fat Packs (now), All-Star Game Mega Boxes (Feb. 11)
Would you rather rip one Hobby Box or 35 Fat Packs? Let us know in the comments.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.