Welcome to Wax Watch — The Hobby Wire’s quick-hit preview of upcoming releases before they hit shelves. We break down what it is, who you’re chasing, and whether it’s worth ripping, stashing, scooping singles, or skipping altogether.
2026-27 Topps Flagship Basketball drops tomorrow, and it’s the first time LeBron and Giannis hit packs in their new colors.
Last year, the rookie crop felt kind of mid to begin with. One year later, we think it’s a shallow class that’s about three players deep with Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, and Kon Knueppel. But man are those players good. And that Flagg kid? He’s really good.
This year, Topps says the rookie class is one of the deepest in recent memory.
It’s only been 8 games.
So how high are we on this year’s Flagship?
Let’s rip in.
UPDATE 11/5
It turns out we were misinformed about a previous statement we made in this piece regarding exclusivity of the All Kings insert. All Kings, one of the bigger chases in the product, is not a hobby exclusive in this release. We have removed the statement from this article and accurate information will be reflected in our Wax Value Index coming soon.
The Lowdown
Release Date(s):
Hobby Box — 11.05.26
Jumbo Hobby Box — 11.05.26
Value Box — 11.05.26
Fanatics Value Box — 11.05.26
Hanger Box — 11.05.26
Fat Pack — 11.05.26
Mega Box — 11.12.26
Year two of Topps’ NBA run makes it official: “Flagship” is now part of the name. This year’s base set runs 300 cards deep with 45 rookies.
If you’re looking for LeBron in a 76ers uniform, that card is a short print. His base card has him as a Laker.
Topps is also bringing in some new parallels. Clear Variations have been a hobby box standard in baseball for a long time, numbered to 10. Topps is finally bringing them into their basketball lineup. This year, 100 cards get the acetate treatment, including 30 of the rookies.
But the thing that stands out to us the most about this release compared to last year’s isn’t any new parallel or SSP insert. It’s the price jump.
Hobby Boxes were $109.99 at pre-order last year. This year, they were $169.99 at pre-order. Jumbo Hobby shot up even more, from $229.99 to $339.99! If we’re going to pay 50% more, are we going to get 50% more fun? You aren’t getting more cards. And we’re looking at the same number of guaranteed hits here.
Retail went up too. Megas are $10 more for 44 fewer cards, and Value Boxes are $5 more.
Chase Cards to Know
All Kings is the chase Topps is pushing hardest. And for good reason. This insert has taken the hobby by storm in recent years across all three major sports. The 24-card Super Short Print set mixes legends of the game with today’s biggest stars and the first 10 picks of the draft. This year, it adds the first-ever Gold 1/1 All Kings in Topps Basketball.
Golden Mirror Image Variations are back across the full 300-card base set. From the front, they look like a regular base card apart from a gold Topps logo. They’re easier to spot with their golden finish on the back.
The Real One Autographs anchor the hits. The set uses the base design and runs 86 cards deep: 46 veterans and legends, including Curry, Wemby, and Jokić, plus 40 rookies. Parallels run from Gold /50 down to a FoilFractor 1/1.
Rookie Photo Shoot Autographs bring 39 of this year’s rookies, with Red /5 and Platinum 1/1 parallels. A 10-card Dual Auto version pairs them up, numbered to 5.
Talent Watch
These rookies are driving nearly all of the hobby interest in this checklist.
This rookie crop is coming out swinging.
*Stats compiled Tuesday 11/3/26
AJ Dybantsa, SF - Washington Wizards
2026-27 Stats: 19.0 PTS • 4.7 REB • 1.7 AST (3 games)
Dybantsa is a big, smooth wing who can get a bucket just about any way he wants. He’s strong enough to bully smaller defenders and quick enough to get past bigger ones, and he has a real feel for the midrange. He gets to the free throw line, too, which is usually a sign a young scorer is going to stick.
If the jumper becomes consistent, look out. A sprained ankle kept him out of the first four games, but you wouldn’t have known it from his debut. And with Trae Young and Anthony Davis around him, he doesn’t have to carry Washington all by himself.
Cameron Boozer, PF - Memphis Grizzlies
2026-27 Stats: 17.7 PTS • 10.3 REB • 5.6 AST (7 games)
People talked about Cam Boozer being the most well-rounded player in the class, and it looks like they were right.
He’s not going to wow you with athleticism. He just always seems to know where to be. He’s strong in the post, he cleans up the glass, and he’s a smart passer for his size, whether it’s out of a double team or hitting a cutter. It’s a grown-man game, which makes sense when your dad is Carlos Boozer.
Caleb Wilson, PF - Chicago Bulls
2026-27 Stats: 21.6 PTS • 6.7 REB • 2.7 AST (7 games)
Wilson might be the best pure athlete in this class. He’s long, he runs the floor like a guard, and he plays above the rim on both ends, blocking shots on one end and catching lobs on the other.
The rest of his game is still catching up. The handle gets loose and the jumper comes and goes, so there are going to be some ugly nights. Opening night was one of them. But when it clicks, it really clicks, and Chicago is going to give him all the reps he can handle.
Yaxel Lendeborg, F - Golden State Warriors
2026-27 Stats: 21.5 PTS • 7.0 REB • 3.9 AST (8 games)
Yaxel has been a bit of a surprise this season.
He took the long way here: three years of junior college, two at UAB, then a national title at Michigan. He didn’t start playing organized ball until he was 15, and at 24 he’s older than most of this class. But the age shows up in the right ways. He’s long, he can guard just about anybody, he rebounds out of his area, and he makes the smart pass. He just had the kind of all-around night no Warriors rookie has put up since Steph Curry. Not bad for the 11th pick.
Honorable Mentions: Darryn Peterson (Jazz), Darius Acuff Jr. (Kings)
💰 Box Breakdown
Not all boxes are created equal, especially at these prices. Here we lay out the formats, the price for each, how many cards come in a box, and the resulting $/card.
Hobby Box: $274.95 / 240 cards per box → $1.15 per card (Up 62% from MSRP)
1x Autograph or Relic per box
Exclusive Victory Parallels, Player Number Variations, Hobby Exclusive Rainbow Foils
Jumbo Box: $549.95 / 280 cards per box → $1.96 per card (Up 62% from MSRP)
1x Autograph and 1x Relic per box
Exclusive Sandglitter Parallels and Hobby Exclusive Rainbow Foils
Mega Box: $59.99 / 180 cards per box → $0.33 per card
4x 1981-82 Topps Inserts per box
Value Box: $29.99 / 72 cards per box → $0.42 per card
6x Inserts per box
Exclusive Season Tip Off Parallels
Fanatics Value Box: $34.99 / 96 cards per box → $0.36 per card
9x Inserts per box
Exclusive Topps Foil Pattern Parallels (1 per pack)
Hanger Box: $17.99 / 48 cards per box → $0.37 per card
2x Diamante Parallels and 1x 1981-82 Topps Insert per box
Exclusive Diamante Parallels
Fat Pack: $6.99 / 24 cards per pack → $0.29 per card
2x Inserts per pack
For wide releases, we try not to pay more than $2.00/card for Chrome or $1.00/card for paper. The idea is simple: we don’t want to pay so much per card that we can’t at least break even. Flagship is a paper product, so we’re holding it to $1.00.
Every retail format clears the bar with room to spare, led by Fat Packs at $0.29 per card.
Hobby and Jumbo are the only formats over the line. Topps charged $169.99 and $339.99 at pre-order, but both sold out fast, and the secondary market dealers have marked them up to $274.95 and $549.95.
At MSRP, this would look like the typical dollar per card you’d expect to find out of Flagship. But a 62% markup on Hobby and Jumbo makes a price already inflated from last year even worse.
Nearly $2/card in a Jumbo box is nuts, especially for a massively produced release like Flagship. Base cards from a release this size rarely hold that kind of value.
🎯 Verdict: Rip, Flip, or Skip
At The Hobby Wire, we like to keep it simple.
Rip → The checklist, price, and excitement all line up. Bust down the door.
Flip → Solid class, but prices are too high to rip comfortably. Buy singles on the players you want. For wax, grab a box or two to sit on and sell in a year or two once the rookie class starts to prove itself.
Skip → Junk Wax. Hard pass. Overpriced, overproduced, or saddled with a weak class.
Since we’re at the beginning of a new release cycle, let’s start by talking about the rookies that drive it.
Eight games in, these rookies are coming out swinging. But while we think this year’s crop can be solid, don’t mistake that for us saying it will be just as good as last year’s. Our gut feel as we just start to watch these kids is that there may be more collective talent here, but there may not be another Cooper Flagg-type talent in this class.
Despite the advertising, more depth doesn’t mean that every rookie is going to be the next LeBron James. So take whatever Topps is saying with a grain of salt.
2026-27 Flagship feels like a Rip, but it’s bordering on a Flip.
It’ll be your cheapest way into this rookie class all season long, so you might as well go for it here if you like the rookie crop.
If you’re going for a flip, we wouldn’t blame you. Based on last year, not a single format is sitting below the original launch price.
Hobby Boxes are up $60 this year, for the same 240 cards and the same one hit. Jumbo Hobby Boxes are up $110. It turns out, what the price hike offers isn’t more guaranteed fun. It’s just added cost to the ticket for the formats that are stockpiling the best parallels and SSP inserts.
The pre-order prices, while higher than last year, are still justifiable based on dollar per card. But we’d never pay close to $300 for a box that doesn’t even have a guaranteed auto, nor would we pay $550 for only one. Especially when the release has a print run as massive as this one.
At $169.99, Hobby Boxes are the play. At $274.95, they aren’t.
We’re champing at the bit to get a hold of this odds sheet. It’s too early to lock in a Most Valuable Format, but our gut says Hobby will most likely walk away with it. But with prices increasing, there’s a chance they could drastically swing the Most Valuable Format pick for this release. Then again, with how much of the good stuff Topps has made exclusive to hobby formats, it might not matter at all.
Topps/Fanatics does an additional drop on launch day at a slightly higher markup than pre-order. You can sign up for it on the Fanatics app right now. Unless your LCS offers them at retail pricing, this will be your last chance to snag a box at a price that makes sense.
If you miss the window, start looking at retail. You might end up getting more out of 10x Value Boxes than you would out of one Hobby Box for the same price.
We’ll see you when the odds drop.
👉 Verdict: Rip, at MSRP
🏆 Most Valuable Format(s): Hobby Boxes (at MSRP)
Are you ripping 2026-27 Topps Flagship Basketball on release day? Tell us where you land in the comments.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Great run down! We got 4 hobbies and 1 jumbo, honestly thoughts of flipping all of them lol. This class is lights out at the moment.