Jason Masherah, President of Upper Deck, dropped a post on LinkedIn today that’s got the hobby buzzing — and for good reason.
He’s not throwing shade here, or making predictions about the sky falling. He’s doing something rarer: being honest about where we are right now.
“Everything speculative is up right now: The stock market. Bitcoin. Trading cards... And it’s pricing some collectors out.”
He’s not wrong.
Masherah pointed out that half of all consumer spending in the U.S. is now coming from just 10% of people — and that it’s the wealthy who are propping up spending across every category. Concert tickets. Luxury goods. High-end collectibles. Everything is moving at record prices.
And when boxes hit $1,000 or more, he said, you’re not ripping for fun anymore — you’re speculating. You’re betting on what that box (or card) will be worth tomorrow, not just enjoying it today.
That’s not necessarily a new idea for this hobby. Sports cards have always had a bit of speculation baked in — prospecting rookies, chasing the next Hall of Famer, hoping your stash of base cards turns into gold someday. But Masherah’s point is that things feel different now. The scale has changed. The money has changed.
“And when markets become too speculative, they become fragile.”
It’s a fair warning — and it’s one that’s rippling through collectors and investors alike. Some are reading it as a negative take on the state of the hobby. Others see it as a much-needed dose of realism.
Our Take
Here’s where we stand: Jason’s right about what’s happening — but this isn’t all doom and gloom.
For the sports card “investor,” Masherah’s words are a reminder: know the game you’re playing. Understand what’s driving value right now and how quickly those dynamics can change.
For the everyday collector, his post just confirms what most of us have already been feeling — prices got out of hand for the average joe.
The trading card market, like any other, moves in cycles. When speculation and emotion dominates, prices climb too fast. And eventually, they cool off. We’ve been seeing that slow shift all year long.
Breakers have struggled to fill spots that used to sell out in minutes, while singles — especially in mid-tier ranges — have quietly picked up steam. That’s not a sign of collapse. That’s a sign of rebalancing. It’s a sign of the average collectors adapting to the current market.
But here’s the good news: we might already be seeing things turn around.
With 2025-26 Topps Basketball, Fanatics could’ve easily followed the Panini playbook and priced hobby boxes north of $300 — like Donruss boxes in recent years. Instead, they went the opposite direction, landing at an initial price of around $120 a box.
That’s a signal. Fanatics is prioritizing accessibility — getting product into more hands, whether you’re an investor, a collector, or just someone who loves ripping packs on a Saturday.
So yes, Jason’s right that speculation is driving a lot of the market right now. But if you zoom out a bit, it feels less like a warning and more like a reminder: every market finds its balance eventually.
And maybe — just maybe — that’s exactly what we’re watching happen.
P.S.
If you follow Jason Masherah on LinkedIn, he actually posts very insightful looks into the hobby on a regular basis. We definitely recommend you follow him if you don’t already.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook
Excellent write-up -- I applaud Fanatics taking the accessible approach, as well. MANY people scoff at the paper product, but guess what, we were collecting paper decades ago and loved it. As long as Topps paper hangs around, I'll be a card collector, with the assumption that the prices remain reasonable. (True, hobby boxes were $60 not too long ago -- but what hasn't increased in price a lot in the past 5 years?) Notice that Panini had paper (Donruss/Score) and they had no problem charging people $300+ per hobby box. No thank you. Long live Topps!
Really enjoyed this piece. It’s spot on about where the hobby’s headed. For new collectors, it’s tough to find your footing without a plan. The spotlight is always on chase cards and big breaks, which makes it easy to lose direction.
Patience and timing really do matter. Waiting to buy singles after release or selling early hits while demand is high can make collecting a lot more sustainable long term.