In today’s NFL, the running back spot just doesn’t carry the weight it used to. Once upon a time, RBs won MVPs with regularity — now we’re more than a decade removed from Adrian Peterson earning the award in 2012.
But even in this pass heavy era of the NFL there are still some dominant bell cow running backs, with Jonathan Taylor nearing the top of this list.
Taylor’s Makeup
RB / Indianapolis Colts / Draft Info: Round 2, 41st overall in 2020
Jonathan Taylor remains the kind of running back who reminds you why the position still matters. He runs with power, hits the hole hard, and has the straight-line juice to turn a routine handoff into a chunk play. One cut, downhill, good luck.
His strengths are easy to spot — balance, burst, and the ability to finish every run falling forward. The concerns are just as real: he struggles to stay healthy, he can look a little stiff laterally, and the receiving game is more ‘fine’ than featured.
Still, when looking at long-term hobby appeal, we think Taylor’s blend of elite athleticism, proven production, and “home-run at any moment” identity could keep him in the upper tier of the modern RB market.
Do The Colts Help or Hurt?
Collectors know the hobby can punish great players in bad situations. Context matters. When we evaluate the ecosystem around a star, we’re looking at three things:
Coaching stability: Is there a system to grow in, or constant turnover?
Front office / ownership: Are they building winners, or making questionable moves?
Roster outlook: Is the supporting cast strong, or still in flux?
Since Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Colts have been in a constant identity crisis. New QBs every year, coaching turnover, and only one playoff appearance during Taylor’s career.
They used that 2022 disaster season to grab Anthony Richardson, but the development curve hasn’t gone according to plan.
To Indy’s credit, they do know who their engine is. They’ve built one of the league’s better offensive lines, and every move they make seems designed to get Taylor clean lanes.
We believe the Colts really are trying to win. It just hasn’t worked out for them so far.
This year, they finally looked like a team with a direction. Daniel Jones — say what you want, New York — is a perfectly capable system QB. Add the midseason swing for Sauce Gardner, and suddenly the Colts looked like a playoff roster on paper.*.
*Of course, in true Colts fashion, disaster struck again. Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury last Sunday, and Indy pulled Phillip Rivers out of retirement to stabilize the room. Yes, really.
GOAT Watch 🐐
At The Hobby Wire, we’ve never understood why unproven prospects outprice the legends. If a modern rookie auto is outselling the GOAT at their position, that’s usually your cue to take profits.
Let’s see how JT performs up against the stats of one of the greatest RBs to ever dawn a helmet, Jim Brown.
When you line up Taylor’s start with Jim Brown’s first six seasons, the raw totals look shockingly close — until you remember Brown did it in 12–14 game seasons.
And while Taylor benefits from today’s longer schedule, his injury history actually keeps the gap smaller than you’d think: he’s only played four more games than Brown through six years.
We don’t expect JT to be jumping Jim Brown in the RB pantheon any time soon.
Brown’s rookie clears six figures; Taylor’s goes for a few hundred.
Career Projection
After six seasons, Taylor is widely seen as one of the league’s top backs. Most elite RB careers last 10–15 seasons, which puts him right on the front end of his prime.
Here’s where his numbers project if he simply keeps up his current pace through Week 14 of the 2025 season.
Current Career Totals
Rush Yards 7,369 • Rush TDs 67 • Receiving Yards 1,395 • Receiving TDs 7
10 Years
Rush Yards 12,970 • Rush TDs 120 • Receiving Yards 2,481 • Receiving TDs 10
15 Years
Rush Yards 19,455 • Rush TDs 180 • Receiving Yards 3,722 • Receiving TDs 15
If Taylor somehow plays 15 seasons, he’d flirt with Emmitt Smith’s records in rushing yards, rushing TDs, and total TDs. That’s the ceiling scenario. Realistically, durability probably caps him closer to a 10–12 year career. He’s only logged one fully healthy season so far, and that matters to us.
Even at the conservative projection, Taylor finishes with top-10 rushing numbers and a strong Hall of Fame argument.
Hobby Heat Map
Here, we want to put our finger on the pulse of the hobby and get a sense on what collectors feel about JT. To do this, we’re going to take a low end rookie and a high end rookie and track sales performance throughout his career.
Our Low-End Pick: 2020 Panini Prizm Jonathan Taylor #332 Silver PSA 10
Taylor’s low-end rookies follow a clean pattern: breakout in 2021, crash with injuries in ’22 and ’23, forgotten in ’24, then a massive rebound in 2025 as he re-enters the ‘best RB in football’ conversation. Anyone who bought the dip is up nearly 4x.
Our High-End Pick:
2020 Contenders Team Logo Rookie Ticket Auto Jonathan Taylor #116A PSA 10
The high-end market tells the same story, just with more caution. Prices climbed this year, but deeper-pocket buyers haven’t fully bought into Taylor’s revival yet. And honestly, the lack of high-end comps might say more than the comps themselves: the demand isn’t there.
What’s His True Value?
We’ll be real. We don’t think Jonathan Taylor will have the 15 year career that some of the greats do. This is mostly due to his ability to stay on the field. We think he’ll hang it up closer to the 10-12 year mark.
The comp we like most is Marcus Allen. Allen is a much better receiver, but the rushing profile is almost identical to Taylor’s pace — and Taylor could be a bigger factor in the passing game if Indy actually used him that way.
Allen’s 1983 Topps Rookie hovers around $1,094 (pop 175). Taylor’s equivalent Donruss Rated Rookie goes for about $36 (pop 617).
If you normalize for pop and demand, Taylor’s true long-term value probably settles closer to $311.
Our Verdict
The one thing holding Taylor back is the one thing that always holds RBs back: availability. When he’s healthy, he’s a top-tier bell cow with Hall of Fame production.
We’re surprised to see how little of a market there is for Taylor and genuinely think he should be valued much higher. But right now, it’s still too risky for us. Another full season would change the equation — another major injury might end it.
For now, patience feels smarter than speculation. If he strings together another healthy year, this entire market could shift overnight — and yes, the 10x scenario becomes very real.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Great write up! As a Colts fan, and someone who is forced to watch Badger games I've watched the vast majority of the games he played. This dude is legit, I was so pumped when the Colts drafted him. I knew he would be the focal point of the offense going forward.
The injury situation around him, and the idiotic coaching decisions have crashed his MVP hopes, but he was looking like the reincarnation of Walter Peyton in the first 8 games this year.
As far as his cards go, they definitely move more, and hold more value than any other running back in the game right now. It could very well be cause I have more Colts cards than any other team in my inventory, but running backs in general aren't really in demand. I'm actually shifting time just QB's, hall of famers, and Colts/Wolverine players. The rest of the cards are just so hard to move.
Great article, JT is the best Running back since Adrian Peterson. Thanks for shining some light on him.