Every season, the hobby picks its stars — the players whose cards capture the hype and the dollars. Justin Herbert’s talent is undeniable, but five years in, the market is asking a tougher question: is he on the road to greatness, or just another ‘what if?’ story?
Herbert at a Glance
Position: QB / Team: LA Chargers / Draft Info: 6th Overall in the 2020 NFL Draft
Justin Herbert's style of play is that of a prototypical pocket passer with exceptional physical tools. He possesses an elite arm, capable of making any throw on the field with impressive velocity and deep-ball accuracy. Standing at 6'6", he also has the ideal size and athleticism to see over the offensive line and extend plays with his legs. Herbert is known for his high football IQ and quick processing, allowing him to work through progressions and make smart, low-turnover decisions. While his accuracy can sometimes be inconsistent under heavy pressure, he is widely regarded as one of the most physically gifted and intelligent quarterbacks in the league.
LA Chargers: Do Help or Hurt Herbert?
Collectors know the hobby punishes great players in bad situations. For a player to truly excel in the game, they must have solid organizational and team support. When looking at the team behind the player, we’re seeking the following.
Coaching stability: Is there a system to grow in, or constant turnover?
Front office / ownership: Are they building winners, or making questionable moves?
Roster outlook: Is the supporting cast strong, or still in flux?
For Justin Herbert and the Chargers, it’s been a rocky ride. He’s had four head coaches in five seasons, though Jim Harbaugh finally feels like the right hire. The team has swung between extremes — 11–6 in 2024, 5–12 in 2023 — and Herbert’s two playoff trips both ended in Wild Card exits.
Still, the Chargers deserve some credit. Since drafting Herbert in 2020, they’ve invested in his protection upfront and weapons in the receiving core. Enough of those picks have panned out that, paired with Harbaugh’s arrival, this roster now carries that young, spunky, almost-contender vibe.
GOAT Watch 🐐
At The Hobby Wire, we’ve never understood why unproven talent commands higher prices than the true legends of a sport. If a modern rookie auto is outselling the GOAT at their position, that should be your signal to cash out. We’ll save the deeper dive on this topic for another post, but for now, let’s line up Justin Herbert’s first five seasons against those of the undisputed benchmark: Tom Brady.
At a glance, these numbers look great for Justin Herbert. In the first five years of his career beat Brady in all statistical categories, except for the one that matters most to the hobby…winning. Herbert is a shining star in the modern NFL, benefiting from the pass heavy mindset of today’s game. But, as discussed up above, he’s on a team that’s been very mid so far during his developmental years. In the same amount of time, Tom Brady had 3 Rings, and 2 Super Bowl MVPs. Herbert’s been to the Pro Bowl once…
Career Projections
Superstar QBs tend to have careers between 10 and 20 years. Assuming that Herbert continues to to stay healthy and play at the same level, here’s what his career stats could look like when all is said and done. Does he have a shot to nab some all-time records?
*Based on Justin Herbert’s performance through Week 2 of the 2025 NFL Season
10 Years
Win/Loss Record: 84-74, Pass Yards: 42,308, Pass TDs: 278, Rush Yards: 2,500,
Rush TDs: 25
15 Years
Win/Loss Record: 126-111, Pass Yards: 63,461, Pass TDs: 416, Rush Yards: 3,751,
Rush TDs: 38
20 Years
Win/Loss Record: 168-148, Pass Yards: 84,616, Pass TDs: 556, Rush Yards: 5,000,
Rush TDs: 50
Justin Herbert might have a statistical edge on Tom Brady in the first 5 years of his career, but even if he played for 20 years in the NFL, he wouldn’t break a single all-time regular season QB record.
Hobby Heat Map
Here, we want to put our finger on the pulse of the hobby and get a sense on what collectors feel about Herbert. To do this, we’re going to take a low end rookie and a high end rookie and track sales performance throughout his career.
Our Low-End Pick: 2020 Prizm #325 Justin Herbert Silver PSA 10
Low end hobbyists seem to be sensing that Herbert isn’t going to have the career people thought as he now enters his 6th season with the Chargers. Time will tell, but it looks like today the hobby is valuing him somewhere around $1,000. Now let’s see if our collector’s with deeper pockets have a different outlook.
Our High-End Pick: 2020 National Treasures #158 Justin Herbert RPA /99 BGS 9.5
We specifically chose the Beckett 9.5 version of this card because it was one of the few low numbered RPAs that had sales in each of the years we’ve been covering.
Seems like the high end hobbyists held out hope a little longer, but the result is the same. After the chargers abysmal 2023 campaign, the card prices sank.
What’s his True Value?
Taking all of this into account Justin Herbert’s career is shaping up to be looked back on as very good, but not the best. Putting it into perspective, if Herbert was to surpass Brady as the GOAT, assuming he plays a 15 year career, he has 10 years to win 8 Super Bowls. That’s not happening.
Based on projected stats, it looks to us like Herbert’s going to have more of a career ceiling like an athletic (and hopefully less controversial?) Ben Roethlisberger.
Big Ben’s chrome rookie refractor currently sells for around $4,000, but has a much lower pop at 17 compared to Herbert’s Silver Prizm rookie (212).
With our Roethlisberger comparison, we can use this formula to determine the true value of a Herbert Silver Prizm to be closer to $320.75
Our Verdict
With Herbert’s cards selling at nearly 3x our calculated true value, we’d stay away from him as a long-term hold. That said, there’s still a short-term play worth considering.
For those in the Grade & Flip game, Herbert’s 2020 Silver Prizm is hovering around $152 raw. Spot a clean copy, send it to PSA, and a Gem Mint 10 could 6x your investment. Even a PSA 9 gives you a chance to exit near break-even.
Still, the hobby rewards winners — and until Herbert proves he can carry the Chargers deep into January, his long-term ceiling looks capped. Smart collectors can find opportunities at the margins, but the market as a whole is waiting on proof.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.