The collectors are on the clock. With 2025-26 Topps Basketball about to hit shelves, the hobby is buzzing — and it’s not hard to see why. There’s one name on every breaker’s mind, one rookie plastered across the hype cycle: Cooper Flagg of the Dallas Mavericks.
Billed as a do-it-all phenom with “championship DNA,” Flagg is already carrying the weight of generational expectations. Dallas bought in, grabbing him with the No. 1 overall pick, and collectors are lining up to do the same.
But at The Hobby Wire, we’ve seen this movie before. Every June brings a new “can’t miss” No. 1, and not all of them turn into hobby cornerstones. Some become legends, others footnotes.
So before you rip into Flagg chases, we’re pulling receipts — looking back at every first overall pick since 2000, their careers, their accolades, and how their rookie cards are holding up in today’s market. What kind of chance does the No. 1 overall have at becoming an icon of the sport?
We’ll present the raw data, then see you on the other side for our take.
For recent rookie card sales, we us the average price of the 5 most recent sales of the athlete’s base Chrome/Prizm rookie card in a PSA 10.
2000 - Kenyon Martin - New Jersey Nets
Position: Power Forward / Center
Length of Career: 15 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 12.3 Pts, 6.8 Rebs, 1.9 Asts, 1.2 Stls, 1.1 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 15
Accolades: 1x All Star
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $90.00
2001 - Kwame Brown - Washington Wizards
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 12 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 6.6 Pts, 5.5 Rebs, 0.9 Asts, 0.5 Stls, 0.6 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 12.5
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $20.40
2002 - Yao Ming - Houston Rockets
Position: Center
Length of Career: 8 Seasons (All with Houston)
Per Game Stats: 19 Pts, 9.2 Rebs, 1.6 Asts, 0.4 Stls, 1.9 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 23
Accolades: 8x All Star, 5x All NBA, Hall of Fame Inductee
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $160.40
2003 - LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: Small Forward / Point Guard
Length of Career: 22 Seasons…and counting!
Per Game Stats: 27 Pts, 7.5 Rebs, 7.4 Asts, 1.5 Stls, 0.7Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 26.9
Accolades: 21x All Star, 21x All NBA, 6x All Defensive Teams, Rookie of the Year, 4x MVP, 4x NBA Champion, 1x Scoring Champ, 1x Assist Champ, 4x Finals MVP, Hall of Fame Inductee…probably
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $7,202.20
2004 - Dwight Howard - Orlando Magic
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 18 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 15.7 Pts, 11.8 Rebs, 1.3 Asts, 1.8 Stls, 2.7 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 21.3
Accolades: 8x All Star, 8x All NBA, 5x All Defensive Teams, 1x NBA Champion, 5x Rebound Champ, 2x Block Champ, 3x Defensive Player of the Year, Hall of Fame Inductee
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $75.40
2005 - Andrew Bogut - Milwaukee Bucks
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 14 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 9.6 Pts, 8.7 Rebs, 2.2 Asts, 0.6 Stls, 1.5 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 16.4
Accolades: 1x All NBA, 1x All Defensive Team, 1x NBA Champion, 1x Block Champ
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $15.65
2006 - Andrea Bargnani - Toronto Raptors
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 10 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 14.3 Pts, 4.6 Rebs, 1.2 Asts, 0.4 Stls, 0.9 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 14.4
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $29
2007 - Greg Oden - Portland Trailblazers
Position: Center
Length of Career: 3 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 8 Pts, 6.2 Rebs, 0.5 Asts, 0.4 Stls, 1.2 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 18.7
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $19.2
2008 - Derrick Rose - Chicago Bulls
Position: Point Guard
Length of Career: 15 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 17.4 Pts, 3.2 Rebs, 5.2 Asts, 0.7 Stls, 0.3 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 18
Accolades: 3x All Star, 1x All NBA, Rookie of the Year, 1x MVP
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $263
2009 - Blake Griffin - Los Angeles Clippers
Position: Power Forward / Center
Length of Career: 13 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 19 Pts, 8 Rebs, 4 Asts, 0.8 Stls, 0.5 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 21
Accolades: 6x All Star, 5x All NBA, Rookie of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $418.80
2010 - John Wall - Washington Wizards
Position: Point Guard
Length of Career: 11 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 18.7 Pts, 4.2 Rebs, 8.9 Asts, 1.6 Stls, 0.7 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 19
Accolades: 5x All Star, 1x All NBA, 1x All Defensive Team
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $18.20*
*2010 was an odd year for basketball as we saw the transition of the NBA trading card license from Topps to Panini. From our research, there was no equivalent to a chrome card in 2010, as Panini released Prizm for the first time in 2012. So for John Wall, we went with his 2010 Panini Prestige #151 Rookie Card.
2011 - Kyrie Irving - Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: Point Guard / Shooting Guard
Length of Career: 14+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 23.7 Pts, 4.1 Rebs, 5.6 Asts, 1.3 Stls, 0.4 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 22.2
Accolades: 9x All Star, 3x All NBA, Rookie of the Year, 1x NBA Champion
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $1,800
*2010 was an odd year for basketball as we saw the transition of the NBA trading card license from Topps to Panini. From our research, there was no equivalent to a chrome card in 2010, as Panini released Prizm for the first time in 2012. So for Kyrie Irving, we went with his 2011 Donruss Rated Rookie #KI.
2012 - Anthony Davis - New Orleans Hornets
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 13+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 24.1 Pts, 10.7 Rebs, 2.6 Asts, 1.3 Stls, 2.3 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 26.8
Accolades: 10x All Star, 5x All NBA, 5x All Defensive Teams, 1x NBA Champion, 3x Block Champ
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $61.60
2013 - Anthony Bennett - Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: Power Forward
Length of Career: 4 Seasons
Per Game Stats: 4.4 Pts, 3.1 Rebs, 0.5 Asts, 0.4 Stls, 0.2 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 10.2
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $28
2014 - Andrew Wiggins - Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: Small Forward / Power Forward
Length of Career: 11+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 18.5 Pts, 4.5 Rebs, 2.3 Asts, 1 Stls, 0.7 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 14.7
Accolades: 1x All Star, Rookie of the Year, 1x NBA Champion
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $10.20
2015 - Karl-Anthony Towns - Minnesota Timberwolves
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 10+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 23.1 Pts, 11.1 Rebs, 3.2 Asts, 0.8 Stls, 1.2 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 23.8
Accolades: 5x All Star, 3x All NBA, Rookie of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $39.60
2016 - Ben Simmons - Philadelphia 76ers
Position: Point Guard
Length of Career: 7+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 13.1 Pts, 7.4 Rebs, 7.2 Asts, 1.5 Stls, 0.7 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 18.4
Accolades: 3x All Star, 1x All NBA, 2x All Defensive Teams, Rookie of the Year, 1x Steal Champ
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $11.40
2017 - Markelle Fultz - Philadelphia 76ers
Position: Point Guard / Shooting Guard
Length of Career: 8+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 10.4 Pts, 3.2 Rebs, 4.4 Asts, 1.1 Stls, 0.3 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 14.3
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $6
2018 - Deandre Ayton - Phoenix Suns
Position: Center
Length of Career: 7+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 16.4 Pts, 10.5 Rebs, 1.6 Asts, 0.7 Stls, 1 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 20
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $7.60
2019 - Zion Williamson - New Orleans Pelicans
Position: Power Forward / Center
Length of Career: 5+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 24.7 Pts, 6.6 Rebs, 4.3 Asts, 1 Stls, 0.6 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 25.1
Accolades: 2x All Star
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $37.60
2020 - Anthony Edwards - Minnesota Timberwolves
Position: Shooting Guard
Length of Career: 5+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 23.9 Pts, 5.3 Rebs, 4.2 Asts, 1.3 Stls, 0.6 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 17.7
Accolades: 3x All Star, 2x All NBA
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $85.80
2021 - Cade Cunningham - Detroit Pistons
Position: Point Guard / Shooting Guard
Length of Career: 4+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 22.1 Pts, 5.4 Rebs, 7.4 Asts, 1 Stls, 0.6 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 16.9
Accolades: 1x All Star, 1x All NBA
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $51
2022 - Paolo Banchero - Orlando Magic
Position: Power Forward
Length of Career: 3+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 22.4 Pts, 7.1 Rebs, 4.6 Asts, 0.8 Stls, 0.6 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 17.1
Accolades: 1x All Star, Rookie of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $44.40
2023 - Victor Wembanyama - San Antonio Spurs
Position: Center / Power Forward
Length of Career: 2+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 22.5 Pts, 10.8 Rebs, 3.8 Asts, 1.2 Stls, 3.7 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 23.5
Accolades: 1x All Star, 1x All Defensive Team, Rookie of the Year, 2x Block Champ
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $873.20
2024 - Zaccharie Risacher - Atlanta Hawks
Position: Small Forward
Length of Career: 1+ Seasons
Per Game Stats: 12.6 Pts, 3.6 Rebs, 1.2 Asts, 0.7 Stls, 0.5 Blks
Player Efficiency Rating: 12.2
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $40.40
So what does the data actually tell us?
As expected, it’s kind of a mixed bag. Drafting first overall gives you a shot at landing a franchise cornerstone — but just as often, you end up with a player who’s “pretty good” rather than truly great.
Here’s what stood out from our look at the 25 No. 1 picks since 2000:
81% have stuck around for at least 10 seasons.
64% earned at least one All-Star nod.
40% posted a career PER of 20+ (legit star level).
36% won Rookie of the Year.
32% averaged 20+ points per game.
24% became NBA champions.
24% finished with a PER under 15 (below average).
24% still have Chrome base rookies moving for $100+.
Just 8% took home an MVP.
A few caveats: younger picks are still writing their stories, so some numbers will shift. But the trend line is clear — the average first overall pick is durable, likely an All-Star at some point, but not necessarily a player who moves the needle in the hobby long-term.
That’s where collectors need to be careful. No. 1 picks almost always come out of the gate at a premium, but history says you’re usually buying into a “pretty good” career — not the next LeBron. “Pretty good” doesn’t always hold value once the hype wears off.
Reading between the lines: The players whose cards have held the strongest value — LeBron, D-Rose, Griffin, Kyrie, and Wemby — share two traits: Rookie of the Year hardware and no competition to be the face of their franchise. When a No. 1 pick becomes the guy for their team, that’s when the hobby payoff follows.
Any collector can chase the hype of a No. 1 pick. The real edge in this hobby comes from spotting the ones built to outlast the buzz.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.