It’s NFL Draft week, and collectors are on the clock.
All signs point to Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza going to the Raiders with the first overall pick. He’s an excellent pocket passer with the size, composure, and playmaking IQ to grow into a legitimate franchise QB. Easy to see why he’s the consensus No. 1.
We’ve seen this movie before. Every April brings a new “can’t miss” top pick, and not all of them turn into hobby cornerstones. QBs are expected to deliver MVPs and Super Bowls. Non-QBs are supposed to be generational talents. Some become legends. Most become footnotes.
So before you greenlight ripping open every future product with Fernando Mendoza, or whoever goes number one, in it, we’re pulling receipts.
We’re taking a look back at every No. 1 overall pick since 2000: their careers, their accolades, and how their rookie cards are holding up in today’s market.
The question we want answered: What kind of chance does the first overall pick have at becoming an icon of the sport?
We'll lay out the raw data first. Then meet us on the other side for our take.
For recent rookie card sales, we us the average price of the 5 most recent sales of the athlete’s base Chrome/Prizm rookie card in a PSA 10 unless noted otherwise.
2000 - Courtney Brown - Cleveland Browns
Position: DE
Length of Career: 6 Seasons
Career Stats: 155 Solo Tackles, 19 Sacks, 6 Forced Fumbles
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $15.00 (Raw)
2001 - Michael Vick - Atlanta Falcons
Position: QB
Length of Career: 13 Seasons
Career Stats: 22,464 Pass Yards, 133 Pass TDs, 80.4 Passer Rating, 6,109 Rush Yards, 36 Rush TDs
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 1x Comeback Player of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $4,400
2002 - David Carr - Houston Texans
Position: QB
Length of Career: 11 Seasons
Career Stats: 14,452 Pass Yards, 65 Pass TDs, 74.9 Passer Rating
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $41.65 (Beckett 9.5)
2003 - Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals
Position: QB
Length of Career: 15
Career Stats: 46,247 Pass Yards (17th All-Time), 294 Pass TDs (16th All-Time), 87.9 Passer Rating
Accolades: 3x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $51
2004 - Eli Manning - New York Giants
Position: QB
Length of Career: 16 Seasons (All with the Giants)
Career Stats: 57,023 Pass Yards (11th All-Time), 366 Pass TDs (11th All-Time), 84.1 Passer Rating
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 2x Super Bowl Champ, 2x Super Bowl MVP
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $875 (PSA 9)
2005 - Alex Smith - San Francisco 49ers
Position: QB
Length of Career: 16 Seasons
Career Stats: 35,650 Pass Yards, 199 Pass TDs, 86.9 Passer Rating
Accolades: 3x Pro Bowl, 1x Comeback Player of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $39.99 (BGS 9.5)
2006 - Mario Williams - Houston Texans
Position: DE
Length of Career: 11 Seasons
Career Stats: 317 Solo Tackles, 97.5 Sacks, 11 Forced Fumbles, 1 Interception
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $16.50
2007 - JaMarcus Russell - Oakland Raiders
Position: QB
Length of Career: 3 Seasons
Career Stats: 4,083 Pass Yards, 18 Pass TDs, 65.2 Passer Rating
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $21.50
2008 - Jake Long - Miami Dolphins
Position: OT
Length of Career: 8 Seasons
Career Stats: 126 Starts
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $20
2009 - Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions
Position: QB
Length of Career: 17+ Seasons
Career Stats: 59,809 Pass Yards (6th All-Time), 377 Pass TDs (7th All-Time), 87.4 Passer Rating
Accolades: 3x Pro Bowl, 1x Super Bowl Champ, 1x Super Bowl MVP, 1x MVP
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $1,560
2010 - Sam Bradford - St. Louis Rams
Position: QB
Length of Career: 9 Seasons
Career Stats: 19,449 Pass Yards, 103 Pass TD, 84.5 Passer Rating
Accolades: 2010 Offensive Rookie of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $9.50
2011 - Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers
Position: QB
Length of Career: 11 Seasons
Career Stats: 32,382 Pass Yards, 194 Pass TDs, 75.5 Passer Rating, 5,398 Rush Yards, 75 Rush TDs
Accolades: 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year, 3x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro, 1x MVP
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $86.40
2012 - Andrew Luck - Indianapolis Colts
Position: QB
Length of Career: 7 Seasons (All with the Colts)
Career Stats: 23,671 Pass Yards, 171 Pass TDs, 89.5 Passer Rating
Accolades: 4x Pro Bowl, 1x Comeback Player of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $20
2013 - Eric Fisher - Kansas City Chiefs
Position: OT
Length of Career: 11 Seasons
Career Stats: 145 Starts
Accolades: 2x Pro Bowl, 1x Super Bowl Champ
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $1.99 (Raw)
2014 - Jadeveon Clowney - Houston Texans
Position: EDGE/OLB
Length of Career: 10+ Seasons
Career Stats: 296 Solo Tackles, 66.5 Sacks, 16 Forced Fumbles, 1 Interception
Accolades: 3x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $30
2015 - Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: QB
Length of Career: 11+ Seasons
Career Stats: 24,792 Pass Yards, 156 Pass TDs, 86.3 Passer Rating
Accolades: 1x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $35
2016 - Jared Goff - Los Angeles Rams
Position: QB
Length of Career: 10+ Seasons
Career Stats: 39,622 Pass Yards, 256 Pass TDs, 96.8 Passer Rating
Accolades: 5x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $155
2017 - Myles Garrett - Cleveland Browns
Position: DE
Length of Career: 9+ Seasons (All with the Browns)
Career Stats: 293 Solo Tackles, 125.5 Sacks, 23 Forced Fumbles
Accolades: 7x Pro Bowl, 5x All-Pro, 2x Defensive Player of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $425
2018 - Baker Mayfield - Cleveland Browns
Position: QB
Length of Career: 8+ Seasons
Career Stats: 28,525 Pass Yards, 197 Pass TDs, 91.2 Passer Rating
Accolades: 2x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $204
2019 - Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
Position: QB
Length of Career: 7+ Seasons
Career Stats: 20,460 Pass Yards, 121 Pass TDs, 92.2 Passer Rating, 3,193 Rush Yards, 32 Rush TDs
Accolades: 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year, 2x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $265
2020 - Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals
Position: QB
Length of Career: 6+ Seasons
Career Stats: 20,810 Pass yards, 157 Pass TDs, 101.1 Passer Rating
Accolades: 3x Pro Bowl, 2x Comeback Player of the Year
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $1,380
2021 -Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: QB
Length of Career: 5+ Seasons
Career Stats: 17,822 Pass Yards, 98 Pass TDs, 86.3 Passer Rating
Accolades: 1x Pro Bowl
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $900
2022 - Travon Walker - Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: DE
Length of Career: 4+ Seasons
Career Stats: 101 Solo Tackles, 27.5 Sacks, 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 Interception
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $19.95
2023 - Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers
Position: QB
Length of Career: 3+ Seasons
Career Stats: 8,291 Pass Yards, 49 Pass TDs, 80.9 Passer Rating
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $188
2024 - Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears
Position: QB
Length of Career: 2+ Seasons
Career Stats: 7,483 Pass Yards, 47 Pass TDs, 89 Passer Rating
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $955
2025 - Cam Ward - Tennessee Titans
Position: QB
Length of Career: 1+ Seasons
Career Stats: 3,169 Pass Yards, 15 Pass TDs, 80.2 Passer Rating
Accolades: N/A
Recent Rookie Card Sales: $91 (PSA 9)
So what does the data actually tell us?
Mixed. Very mixed.
Having the first overall pick means you get whoever you want. It doesn’t mean they’ll be a superstar, or that they’ll still be on your roster five years later. Here’s what stood out across 26 No. 1 picks since 2000:
The Breakdown
73.1% were QBs | 19.2% were defensive players | 7.7% were offensive tackles
84.2% of QBs finished with a career passer rating of 80+, startable but not elite
70.6% of eligible players have stuck around for at least 10 seasons
69.2% earned at least one Pro Bowl nod.
57% of non-QB picks put up star-level career stat lines
40% have rookie cards selling for $100+, and 90% of those are QBs
21.1% of QBs cleared a 90+ career passer rating
19.2% made at least one All-Pro team, 3.8% had multiple
15.8% of QBs would be recognized as generational talents (Stafford, Vick, Newton)
14% of non-QBs qualify for that label, and that list is one name long: Myles Garrett
11.5% won Rookie of the Year | 11.5% became Super Bowl champions | 11.5% have rookie cards selling for $1,000+
Just 7.7% took home an MVP
Only 3.7% take home an Offensive or Defensive Player of the Year
0% are currently in the Hall of Fame.
The younger picks are still writing their stories, so some of these numbers will move over time. And the HOF number should change. Myles Garrett is coming eventually. Eli too, most likely. But the trend is clear.
Your average No. 1 overall pick plays a long, Pro Bowl-caliber career. If they’re a QB, they’ll be startable. If they’re not a QB, they’ll probably be a star. That’s it. Every other metric collectors actually care about, hardware, dominance, legacy, only gets checked off by a small minority.
Roughly one-in-ten chance they do something truly meaningful, like win a Super Bowl. A smaller slice still ever gets considered one of the best in the league in a given season. We probably could have seen this coming in a sport where the greatest player of all time was a sixth-round pick.
Reading Between the Lines 👇
That’s where collectors need to pump the brakes. No. 1 picks always come out of the gate at a premium. But history says you’re usually buying into a “pretty good” career. Not great. And after a few seasons, pretty good stops holding value.
The cards selling for $100+ share a common thread: they’re almost exclusively QBs, and when they’re not, the player is making a legitimate case for all-time status at their position. Jadeveon Clowney good won’t cut it. You need to be Myles Garrett good. At minimum.
Our Verdict
Football has more positions than any other major sport. Who goes first in the draft often reflects what a specific team needs to fill, not the best overall player in the class. That’s the real story here.
If you’re investing long-term in first overall picks, you’ll get lucky occasionally. But more often than not, this premium slot falls well short of the hype the hobby piles onto it every April.
Any collector can chase the No. 1 pick. The real edge is spotting the ones built to outlast the buzz.
What’s your read on Mendoza? Are you buying in right away, or waiting to see how the first season plays out? Drop your thoughts in the comments.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.