Every collector knows this feeling.
You lock in on a specific rookie, dump real money into the wax, and come up completely empty. It doesn’t sting like bad luck. It feels personal. Like the card company looked you dead in the eyes and said no.
For us, that rookie is Victor Wembanyama.
Box after box of 2023-24 Donruss Basketball and unlicensed Topps Chrome. Not a single Wemby card to show for it. Not even a base.
About a year ago, we started picking up blasters of 2023-24 Panini Phoenix Basketball, the debut of the former hobby exclusive into the retail space. This set must have been severely overprinted, because those blasters sat on shelves for months. Sound familiar? We’re seeing the same thing with 2025 Prizm Football right now.
We figured Phoenix was our last real shot at Wemby cards at retail prices. So every Target run became the same routine: grab one or two blasters from the full case sitting next to checkout. Six boxes total. About $150 out of pocket.
Flash forward to today, and Wemby prices are through the roof. Watching him go toe-to-toe with the Thunder and push that series to a Game 7 gave us serious FOMO. So we’re giving ourselves one final chance. Six blasters, one mission.
Let’s go Wemby hunting.
Our Hopes and Dreams
Fanatics had Wemby’s exclusive auto rights from the start, so there’s no chance of an auto here. But we'd be happy pulling anything Wembanyama from this rip. Even a base card. A PSA 10 of his base is moving for over $100 right now. His Silver Parallel is around $280.
If we get really lucky, luckier than we’ve ever been in this hobby, Phoenix has two case hits worth chasing: the Genies and Metropolis inserts. Both sell north of $300 raw.
Of course, there’s always the chance we come up empty. The 2023-24 NBA rookie class isn’t exactly deep. It’s pretty much Wemby or bust.
But we’re not going to not try.
What Are We Doing Here?
We’re ripping all six blasters today, stopping only if we pull a Wembanyama. After each box, we’ll run comps on anything meaningful. Here’s what we’re counting:
Rookie cards & parallels of NBA starters
Superstar inserts
Star-level parallels
Everything else gets $0.10
Let’s rip in.
Box #1
We started with a bang.
A Phoenix Autograph White Lazer parallel, numbered /99 out of a retail blaster. Gary Harris doesn’t carry much hobby value, but that’s not nothing. Comps at around $6.00.
The rest of the box filled out nicely. An Ausar Thompson Silver Parallel, a LeBron Paragon insert, and a pair of Keyonte George rookies.
No Wemby. But Box 1 clocks in at $14.46.
Still in the hole: $135.54
Box #2
Box 2 didn’t have the same juice.
We pulled a GG Jackson II Instant Phenom Blue Lazer, numbered /275. A numbered rookie card out of retail is always worth acknowledging. A Giannis Silver Paragon and an SGA Fade to Black rounded things out.
But Box 2 came in at a measly $7.35.
Still in the hole: $128.19
Still no Wemby.
Box 3
We’re on a heater.
Another auto out of retail Panini: a Xavier Tillman Crusade Signatures Silver. Tillman isn’t moving the needle in the hobby, but two autos in three blasters? We’ll take it. Comps at $4.00.
The rest of the box had some pleasant surprises: a Stephen Curry Teal Lazer, a Nikola Jokić Temple Men insert, and a Dariq Whitehead rookie. Always happy to pull a Steph parallel.
Box 3 total value: $10.00.
Still in the hole: $118.19
Still no Wemby.
Box 4
The heater’s over.
Box 4 ended our streak of numbered cards and autos, and we pulled duplicate LeBron and Jokić inserts. An Allen Iverson Teal Lazer and a Brandon Miller rookie were the highlights, and we’re using the word “highlights” loosely.
Box 4 total: $7.57. Woof.
Still in the hole: $110.62
Still no Wemby.
Box 5
This one hurt.
Franz Wagner, Jason Kidd, and Tim Duncan Teal Lazer Parallels. The Duncan’s a solid PC add. But when we’re running comps on a Franz Wagner parallel to feel better about a box, we know where we are.
Box 5 total: $6.54.
Still in the hole: $104.08
One box left. Has to be a Wemby in there. Has to be.
Box 6
A little last-box magic, just not the kind we were looking for.
We pulled an Austin Reaves White Lazer, numbered /150. Reaves had himself a season as Luka’s sidekick in LA, and the card comps at $6.00 right now. Could that move? 👀
The rest of the box was full and varied: a Jalen Brunson Fade to Black, a James Harden Teal Lazer, a Paolo Banchero Temple Men insert, plus rookies for Dereck Lively II, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Brandin Podziemski.
Good, not great. But volume helped. Box 6 was our best at $15.40.
Final tally: -$88.68. No Wembanyama.
Lesson Learned
We knew it was a long shot. We didn’t think we’d actually miss.
Here’s the thing though. We cover wax value every week. We run the comps, we track the math, we tell you when a box is worth cracking. And this rip is a good reminder that even when the numbers look reasonable going in, the variance is real. We could have taken that $150 and bought a few solid Wemby singles from this exact set. That would’ve been the sharper move.
So why do we rip wax?
Because it’s fun. We spent that money to have a great morning opening cards, not to execute a trade. Sometimes the hobby loses that plot. But the reason cards hold any value at all is that people genuinely love this. Every once in a while, don’t forget to let yourself do the same.
Drop your thoughts below. What's the one card that's still haunting your collection? 👇
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.