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SlabSquatch Analytics's avatar

Nice write-up.

Personally, when you dig into the metrics, I think Draft is one of the most consistently overrated products available. In my end-of-year rankings, they performed abysmally when compared to all the other products available at secondary market pricing. This is based on several metrics including: $ per auto, $ per parallel, $ per numbered card, etc. Due to the lower entry cost, Megas did fare better than Hobby/Super umbo, but only when counting the Base Mojos as parallels, which gives them a head start in that regard.

That's not to say there aren't potential nukes, because there certainly are. But the massive auto checklist and high price of entry just don't stack up well against decent products. I don't think Hobby/Super Jumbo should be worth anything near the prices they have commanded the past few years, which still makes them arguably viable as a risky stash, but an easy avoid for ripping.

The Hobby Wire's avatar

Agreed. If prices were lower for the hobby formats, we wouldn’t hesitate to rip open a few. But these days, with Draft generally being double the cost of a regular Bowman Hobby Box is hard to stomach.

The introduction of the Mega Boxes finally seemed like an affordable entry point into the checklist. But the ceiling is definitely capped with the autos not having the 1st Bowman designation.