We thought we were so smart.
When the announcement dropped that this year’s MLB Rookies of the Year were Nick Kurtz and Drake Baldwin, we did what any overconfident hobbyist would do — jumped on eBay and scooped up a few Cade Horton Bowman Red Rookies, thinking we were ahead of the curve on a future Cy Young winner.
Then we read the fine print…
That one’s on us. Always read the rules before you play the game. But hey, it did spark a question we couldn’t stop thinking about.
Hobby Twitter has been laser-focused on what to do with their Baldwin and Kurtz Red Rookies. Do you cash them in for the guaranteed $100 in FanCash? Or hang onto them and gamble on one or two MVPs and maybe even a Hall plaque down the road?
Let’s figure it out.
What are the Odds?
Since the award’s inception, 150 players have been named Rookie of the Year.
Of those, 31 have gone on to win at least one MVP, and 7 have captured a Cy Young.
That gives Rookie of the Year winners roughly a 25% chance to snag one of the sport’s biggest individual awards later in their careers.
The MVP, decided by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, tends to favor first basemen — they’ve claimed 37 MVPs, or about 17% of all 250 awards. It’s not just history either: Paul Goldschmidt, José Abreu, and Freddie Freeman have all taken home the trophy within the last six years.
Catchers? Not so lucky. The last to do it was Buster Posey in 2012 (unless Cal Raleigh gets the nod he deserves this year).
Catchers deserve more love — they call every pitch, anchor the defense, and never take a play off — but historically they’ve only got about a 9% shot at MVP glory.
What Would We Do?
We didn’t pull any Drake Baldwin or Nick Kurtz Red Rookies ourselves.
But if we did? Here’s how we’d play it.
If there’s one Rookie of the Year worth holding, it’s Nick Kurtz. The dude mashes.
If he stays healthy and builds on that rookie power surge, he’s got real future MVP potential.
Drake Baldwin, on the other hand, put up a solid but unspectacular .274/.341/.469 slash line with 19 homers and some below-average defense. Respectable — but not the kind of profile that tends to drive long-term hobby value. We’d take the $100 now and move on.
Bonus Play
If you’re thinking long-term, here’s a sneaky value move.
Both the Kurtz and Baldwin Red Rookies are hovering around $70 on the secondary market.
If you buy and redeem them for $100 in FanCash, you’re essentially getting a $30 discount on future Fanatics/Topps wax.
If you know you’re going to rip product anyway, that’s about as close to free money as it gets.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.