Welcome back to The Hobby Wire — the newsletter for collectors, investors, and everyone trying to make sense of this wild hobby.
Each month, we take a step back and look at where the sports card world actually stands—what’s been moving the market, what’s on deck, and where collectors should keep their eyes peeled.
March was one heck of a month. Let’s rip in.
Previously on The Hobby Wire…
A busy month on our end, too.
We launched our paid tier. If you like what we’re doing here, and want more of it, we try to make it worth the upgrade.
Paid subscribers get one extra article a week — usually Wednesdays — covering deeper hobby trends, more Collector’s Case Studies, more rookie class reevaluations, and a brand-new series called Wax Rewind, where we dig into past releases, put out an exclusive wax value index, and see if there’s still value in buying wax on the secondary market.
Our most recent paid piece looked at buying and selling patterns around player injuries — and surfaced a pretty clean quick-flip opportunity.
Around the Hobby
There's almost too much to cover in a single monthly summary. Here's what had us talking.
The Aaron Judge Bowman Chrome Draft Superfractor sold for $5.2 million — an all-time record for a modern sports card. Full stop.
Ohtani mania is still running hot. Even some of his more common inserts are moving for hundreds raw. A word of caution: the 2023 Topps All Aces insert is not a case hit the way it's been in recent years. It was a very common pull. But it's selling north of $300 ungraded right now, and the demand is even pulling up the price of Series One wax on the secondary market. Buyer beware.
Whatnot is facing multiple arbitration cases alleging that their breakers’ randomized group breaks constitute an illegal gambling practice. We’ll have more on this as it develops.
Target and Dick’s Sporting Goods are both going bigger on trading cards. Target confirmed plans in an investor call to expand their in-store card presence significantly. This includes more centralized kiosks and more product. Dick’s is already stocking hobby boxes in some locations. We’ll be watching for this in the wild and will report back when we see it firsthand.
Collectors cracked the code on certain Panini Football products. It turns out you can identify the case hit based on the way the cellophane wraps the box. Be careful when you’re buying Donruss Optic Hobby Boxes and Phoenix Football Mega Boxes
But the story that generated the most heat? Pre-order availability — or the lack of it.
We’ve run into this ourselves. On higher-end releases, pre-orders go live and sell out in minutes. It’s a two-pronged problem: Fanatics/Topps is allocating a significant chunk of product to breakers, which leaves very little for the average collector. What remains gets swept up by bots flipping boxes at a steep markup online.
Topps seems to be leaning toward using EQL, a randomized selection system, to decide who gets the chance to buy. From where we sit, that’s the smarter play right now versus simply increasing print runs to chase demand. We’d rather the product stay scarce and desirable than flood the market to fix a bot problem.
Baseball
Congrats to Team Venezuela for taking down the Team USA dream team and hoisting the WBC trophy. It was an exciting tournament that we’d love to see expanded somehow. From the hobby’s point of view, though, the tourney didn’t move the needle much. There was some volatility during the bracket, but once the trophy was handed out, prices stabilized almost immediately. The hobby moved on fast.
Opening Day, on the other hand? Holy cow.
Between JJ Weatherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Chase DeLauter, Owen Caissie, and then some, there was no shortage of big bats and walk-off moments. All of these guys will be getting their rookie cards at some point in the 2026 lineup, with their Debut Patch Autos slated for this year’s Chrome Update release.
Side note: Top prospect Konnor Griffin is getting the call-up today on the Pirates — meaning he’ll be in this year’s rookie lineup as well.
MVP Odds
NL
Shohei Ohtani — -140
Juan Soto — +650
AL
Aaron Judge — +195
Bobby Witt Jr. — +425
CY Young Odds
NL
Christopher Sanchez — +330
Paul Skenes — +350
AL
Tarik Skubal — +290
Garrett Crochet — +360
Rookie of the Year Odds
NL
Konnor Griffin — +240
Sal Stewart — +350
AL
Kevin McGonigle — +225
Chase DeLauter — +300
Basketball
We can practically smell the playoffs from here.
The Thunder still own the top spot in the West, but Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have been making serious noise. Since the start of San Antonio’s March run, Wemby silver prizms are up 80%. The hobby is clearly betting on him to make things interesting in the West.
And then there’s Bam Adebayo, who dropped 83 points in a game — surpassing Kobe for second most in a single game in NBA history. That’s not the kind of performance you’d put on your bingo card.
So what did it do for his card prices? Bam’s silver prizm doubled overnight. Then almost entirely came back down.
It just goes to show that even with a performance like that, there’s no hobby longevity for second best.
MVP Odds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — -360
Nikola Jokic — +280
Luka Doncic — +1600
Rookie of the Year Odds*
Kon Knueppel — -250
Cooper Flagg — +190
*Odds via Fan Duel
Football
We’re in the quiet stretch for football. A couple of moves worth noting, but neither really moved the needle for cards.
Mike Evans signed with the 49ers. He’s a great receiver on the back half of his career slotting in next to McCaffrey. Makes sense as a football move, doesn’t do much for his market. Maxx Crosby looked like he was headed to Baltimore in a trade, but the deal fell apart after a failed physical. The Raiders are now in a tough spot, likely getting pennies on the dollar for their best pass rusher. Neither story generated much in the way of card price movement.
The real football news is what kicked in on April 1st: Panini’s NFL license is officially over. Fanatics/Topps has the keys now, and they’re not wasting time.
Pre-orders for 2025 Topps Chrome Football go live at 12pm EST today on the Topps website. Topps is taking a hybrid approach for this pre-order with retail formats open to anyone, but all hobby formats are going through EQL. It's a reasonable strategy. We're shooting our shot for a hobby box and will keep you posted on the experience.
2026 MVP Odds
Josh Allen — +550
Lamar Jackson — +650
Patrick Mahomes / Justin Herbert / Joe Burrow — +1000
Upcoming Wax Releases
A quieter month on the release calendar, but a few worth circling:
2025 Topps Chrome Football — 04.15.26
2025-26 Bowman Basketball — 04.22.26
2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball — 04.29.26
2026 Panini Select WNBA — 04.29.26
Release dates sourced from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Watchlist Check-In
We tapped Bulls forward Matas Buzelis as our NBA season buy back in October. Here's where things stand:
Matas Buzelis
Recommended 10.16.25 — $428.20
Current Price — $210.60
Down 50.82%
You can follow the full play in our Flip or Flop series.
Price comparison uses the Silver Prizm/Refractor chrome rookie — the most accessible benchmark across price points. Prices based on the average of the last 5 sales recorded on Market Movers.
Collector’s Corner
(Recommended Reads)
A few articles from around the hobby caught our eye this month.
Thanks for Reading!
That’s a wrap on the April State of the Hobby. Now it’s your turn. Jump into the comments and tell us what you’re watching, how you’re reading the market, and what you want us to dig into next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover this thing.
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We’ll be back next month. Until then, the floor is yours.
— The Hobby Wire Team
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from Market Movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is full of great info. Interesting to see how quickly Adebayo's cards lost their gains following the spike after his 83 point effort. Good as he is, seems like if you're not a top-tier guy in the hobby, those top-tier moments may give you some trading opportunities, but won't necessarily lead to sustainable gains.