Welcome back to The Hobby Wire — the newsletter for collectors, investors, and everyone trying to make sense of this wild hobby.
Each month, we take a step back and look at where the sports card world actually stands—what’s been moving the market, what’s on deck, and where collectors should keep their eyes peeled. Let’s rip in.
Previously on The Hobby Wire…
In November, we put a bow on another baseball season and discussed if Freddie Freeman cards are worth a long term buy and if collectors should hold out or cash out on their Bowman Red Rookies of Nick Kurtz and Drake Baldwin.
We also cracked open a quarter case of the final flagship baseball release of the year, 2025 Topps Update.
Ripped: 2025 Topps Update Baseball
Welcome to Ripped — where we tear into the hobby’s biggest new releases and show you exactly what’s inside.
Around the Hobby
November’s secret word was “Shill” [insert Pee-Wee Herman laugh here].
It started when two well-known hobby influencers casually admitted on a podcast that they bid on their own cards to “protect” their investments.
Hobby Twitter understandably lost its mind.
For anyone new to the term: shill bidding is when a seller or an associate places fake bids to inflate prices or create the illusion of demand. It’s an act that has been speculated to be in the hobby for quite some time.
Let’s be very clear. Shill bidding is straight-up market manipulation and a federal felony. There’s no “defensive” version of it. There’s no gray area. It’s illegal—full stop.
Shortly after the heat died down on these two a second potential shilling ring was exposed in the form of the recently launched Snype auction house from Rick Probstein. When the site launched, they left a back door open that exposed a ton of account information for its bidders.
Someone on a Pokemon forum claims to have discovered that several of the actively bidding email addresses were associated with Rick Probstein himself as well as serval of his associates.
If any of this holds up, the fallout could be massive. Auction prices set the comps, and comps set the market. You shake trust there, and you shake the whole hobby.
Basketball’s Gettin’ Busy
Lots of basketball to talk about this month.
The Mavericks can finally move on as a franchise after firing Nico Harrison early in the month. Harrison was the key figure in trading a generational talent in Luka Dončić for an oft injured Anthony Davis. With people like Mark Cuban back in the decision room, perhaps they can build a team that will help our Cooper Flagg rookies jump in value.
On November 22nd, Chris Paul announced to the world that this season will be his last of a remarkable 21 year career. Surprisingly, his card market barely moved.
Maybe we see prices go up when the media jump starts the “Chris Paul Retirement Tour” campaign later in the season.
It’s fair to say Topps Basketball was a raging success. Affordable, widely available, and actually fun to rip—pretty rare trifecta these days.
What does Topps do next? They open the pre-orders for Topps Chrome at what many considered to be a ridiculously high price.
We were stunned too. $370 for a Hobby Box and $700 for a Jumbo is crazy steep when compared to the baseball variety of the same product. But compared to recent $1,000+ Panini Prizm drops, the sticker shock starts making a bit more sense. The secondary market seems to agree, with recent sales closer to $500/hobby and $1,000/jumbo.
If the secondary market is saying this is what they’re willing to pay, don’t expect Fanatics/Topps to lower the price anytime soon.
MVP Odds Check:
Nikola Jokic — +145
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — +160
Luka Dončić — +300
Football
At the time of writing this, the Chicago Bears are the top seed in the NFC. Yes, you read that right. Each game has been a nail-biter and each win a true team effort. So what’s happening with their cards since the Bears went undefeated in November?
Just before the start of their run, Caleb Williams 2024 Silver Prizm was averaging $425. Today, it’s selling for $600.
Rome Odunze went from $84 down to $75, largely because the game plan this month has been more about the run game.
Without a true superstar carrying the offense, it’s clear Ben Johnson’s system is doing the heavy lifting.
Right now, it feels like a good time to sell into the heat if you’re holding Caleb Williams.
MVP Odds Check:
Matt Stafford — +105
Drake Maye — +120
Dak Prescott — +1100
Baseball: The Results are In
One month removed from the World Series and we’re already feeling the hype start to fade. Baseball free agency drags out longer than any of the other major sports, so we’d expect tumbleweeds for December unless Kyle Tucker signs.
Here’s the list of the major award winners of the 2025 Season along with how their card prices and how much they changed post announcement.
MVP
NL — Shohei Ohtani — $1,797 (Down 13.73%)
AL — Aaron Judge — $598.40 (Down 0.63%)
CY Young
NL — Paul Skenes — $143.33 (Up 10.42%)
AL — Tarik Skubal — $153 (Down 23.5%)
Rookie of the Year
NL — Drake Baldwin — $344 (Up 4.49%)*
AL — Nick Kurtz — $1,800 (Up 19.11%)*
*For the Rookie of the Year winners, we comped their First Bowman Autos since neither have a base chrome refractor out at the time of writing.
With baseball drifting into its annual winter lull, December through February are prime months to scoop singles and wax while the hobby shifts its attention to NBA and NFL.
MVP Odds:
NL
Shohei Ohtani — -110
Juan Soto — +800
AL
Aaron Judge — +300
Bobby Witt Jr. — +500
CY Young Odds:
NL
Paul Skenes — +350
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — +475
AL
Tarik Skubal — +380
Garrett Crochet — +400
Upcoming Wax Releases
Lots of Baseball coming out this month.
2025 Topps Allen & Ginter Baseball - 12.03.25
2025 Topps Chrome Update Baseball - 12.10.25
2025 Panini Rookies & Stars Football - 12.10.25
2025 Topps Archives Baseball - 12.12.25
2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Baseball - 12.17.25
2025 Topps Heritage High Number Baseball - 12.17.25
2025 Topps Chrome Basketball - 12.18.25
*Release dates are gathered from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Watchlist Check-In
This month, we picked Bull’s forward Matas Buzelis as our buy for the NBA Season. Be sure to follow along in our series Flip or Flop to see what our exact play was. Here, we’ll keep an eye on how his general market is using his Silver Prizm.
Matas Buzelis - Recommended 10.16.25 ($428.20) - Current Price: $367.40 - Down 14.19%
*Our standard price comparison will be Prizm/Refractor versions of athlete’s chrome rookie cards since those are the most accessible to collectors of all price points. Prices are derived using the average of the last 5 sales recorded on alt.xyz
Collector’s Corner
(Recommended Reads & Watches)
Here are some articles/videos around the hobby and the sports we follow that caught our eye.
Gotta Catch ‘Em All: Retailers Load Up on Sports, Pokémon and Other Trading Cards - Sarina Trangle / Investopedia
Knicks’ Karl-Anthony Towns sells rare Yoshinobu Yamamoto card for $72K - Stefan Bondy / New York Post
Trading Card Dumpster Fire - Newer page on Substack we’ve come to like!
Thanks for Reading!
That’s it for this month’s State of the Hobby. Now it’s your turn: jump into the comments and tell us what you’re seeing—what storylines you’re following, how you see the market moving, and what you’d like us to track next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover the hobby.
If you enjoyed this edition, make sure to subscribe to The Hobby Wire. Along with our monthly State of the Hobby, we drop 2–3 posts each week—player spotlights, collector insights, product reviews, and market trends to keep you plugged into what’s happening right now in the hobby.
We’ll be back with more hobby chatter next month—until then, the floor is yours.
— The Hobby Wire Team
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.