Welcome back to The Hobby Wire — the newsletter for collectors, investors, and everyone trying to make sense of this wild hobby.
Each month, we take a step back and look at where the sports card world actually stands—what’s been moving the market, what’s on deck, and where collectors should keep their eyes peeled.
January gave us no shortage of chaos. Let’s rip in.
Previously on The Hobby Wire…
We spent a lot of time diving deep into the latest wax, giving our thoughts on Prizm Football, Bowman Draft Baseball, Topps Chrome Basketball, and Donruss Optic Football. When the Kyle Tucker news broke, we dug into whether his cards were actually worth buying.
Kyle Tucker: A Collector's Case Study
Since the start of the 2025 MLB season, the question around the league was simple: if Juan Soto reset the market at $765 million, what does that mean for the next tier of elite position players? We thought we had a rough answer when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. landed $500 million over 14 years. Now, we have more clarity.
Around the Hobby
Topps came under fire this month on Hobby Twitter due to some major packaging errors.
The first incident occurred with Topps Chrome Basketball. After breakers and collectors alike ripped open thousands of Mega Boxes chasing those Blue X-Fractors, not a single one was pulled. Many credible hobby influencers contacted Topps and learned that the phrase “Chase Exclusive Blue X-Fractors” was a print error on the packaging.
Wax rippers were outraged. Not only were collectors led to believe a chase card existed when it didn’t, but Topps also appeared unwilling to do much to make it right.
Just when we were starting to forgive this as a one-time thing, it happened again just last week with the pre-orders for Stadium Club Baseball, with packaging on their mega boxes referencing chrome parallels that were again not listed on the odds sheet. Topps quickly updated the packaging on the press kits once this was realized.
This reminds us a lot of the release of 2022 Topps Chrome Baseball, when the advertised J-Rod and Bobby Witt Jr short prints were nowhere to be found. Topps made things right by distributing special silver packs loaded with expired redemptions. We saw people pulling rookie autos and 1st Bowman autos of the game’s biggest stars out of those packs.
These days, that’s looking more like a once-in-a-lifetime event. Back then, Topps likely overcorrected. Today, they barely acknowledge the mistake.
Update
Just as we were putting a bow on this, Topps has decided to make things right with the customers. They’ve announced a Blue X-Fractor exchange program where collectors can submit any of their 2025 Topps Chrome Basketball X-Fractors to turn them into the blue parallel. Click here for the full details.
Be careful though. Topps is not guaranteeing you’ll receive the same card back.
Fanatics Leaks
Leaked internal documents from Fanatics may have shed some light on who some of the hobby’s biggest players are. To no surprise, hobby twitter is exploding with all sorts of takes.
We want to make sure everyone stays grounded here. If these leaks are legitimate, this is not evidence of ‘juiced’ boxes going to breakers. What it does show is who’s spending the most on product and who’s getting the most allocation. If Blez Sports Cards, We The Hobby, Filthbomb, and Backyard Breaks are buying up the bulk of the inventory, then they definitely have a higher chance of pulling a lot of the chase cards. It might not be that the packs are ‘juiced,’ but rather that these breakers are simply buying far more tickets to the same lottery.
Basketball
Just a couple weeks away from All Star Weekend and the usual trade rumors are stirring. Are the Mavericks going to commit to a retooling period and trade Anthony Davis? Does Ja Morant find himself playing in a different jersey in a few weeks? Trade rumors are doing what trade rumors do this time of year.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the biggest name being floated, and for once, the noise feels louder than usual. We’re keeping our eyes on where Giannis lands. If he ends up on a team primed to win now, his card prices will skyrocket.
In other news, the Rookie of the Year race looks like there are only two people involved. Cooper Flagg & Kon Knueppel. Both Duke products pulled out all the stops when they went head to head on 1/29 in a game that became an instant classic.
MVP Odds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — -360
Nikola Jokic — +700
Luka Dončić — +1000
Rookie of the Year Odds
Cooper Flagg — -500
Kon Knueppel — +340
VJ Edgecombe — +3000
Football
This year’s NFL playoffs were something special. Almost every game seemed like a nail-biter with late leads, wild swings, and just enough chaos to keep us glued to the screen. In the end, two teams are left standing as we get a Super Bowl XLIX rematch between the Patriots and the Seahawks.
The MVP is looking like it will either go to Drake Maye or Matt Stafford. If card prices are any indication, Stafford’s 2009 Topps Chrome Refractor has increased 292% since the start of this NFL season. But Maye beats that with a significant 330% increase. The hobby has clearly made it’s pick here.
The Seahawks look just as good as the Patriots. This should be a great game. We had a little fun last week trying to predict the winner based on card values. Give it a read if you want to see what team the hobby seems to be siding with.
Baseball
January was when we finally saw major movement in the free agent market. It started with Alex Bregman going to the Cubs on a 5 year/$175 million deal. Shortly after, Kyle Tucker signed his record setting $60 million per year contract with the Dodgers. The dominoes are starting to fall and pretty soon, we’ll have a good look at all of our favorite teams.
January also saw the announcement of the 2026 Hall of Fame Inductees. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones are joining Jeff Kent in being called to the hall. Beltrán’s card prices already had his HoF Induction priced in, so there wasn’t much movement. Andruw Jones, on the other hand, seemed to be a bit of a surprise for the collecting community. His 1995 Bowman Rookie shot up 21% since the announcement.
We’re a month away from the World Baseball Classic and that means teams are starting to announce their rosters. Team USA is looking stacked this year, putting together a roster full of talent equivalent to the NBA’s Dream Team. The US is coming back with a vengeance after losing to Ohtani and the rest of Team Japan three years ago.
MVP Odds
NL
Shohei Ohtani — -125
Juan Soto — +800
AL
Aaron Judge — +225
Bobby Witt Jr. — +550
CY Young Odds
NL
Paul Skenes — +225
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — +500
AL
Tarik Skubal — +350
Garrett Crochet — +425
Rookie of the Year Odds
NL
Nolan McLean — +370
JJ Wetherholt — +400
AL
Trey Yesavage — +320
Munetaka Murakami — +425
Upcoming Wax Releases
Some of the most high-end football products of the year are dropping this month.
2025 Panini Prizm Football Hobby Boxes - 02.02.26
2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball - 02.11.26
2025 Panini National Treasures Football - 02.18.26
2025 Topps Stadium Club Baseball - 02.18.26
2025 Panini Flawless Football - 02.27.26
2025 Panini Select Football - TBD
2025 Bowman’s Best Baseball - TBD
2025 Panini Select WNBA - TBD
*Release dates are gathered from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Watchlist Check-In
We picked Bull’s forward Matas Buzelis as our buy for the NBA Season. Be sure to follow along in our series Flip or Flop to see what our exact play was. Here, we’ll keep an eye on how his general market is using his Silver Prizm.
Spoiler alert: this take is aging like milk 🥛
Matas Buzelis - Recommended 10.16.25 ($428.20) - Current Price: $213.20 - Down 50.21%
*Our standard price comparison will be Prizm/Refractor versions of athlete’s chrome rookie cards since these are the most accessible to collectors of all price points. Prices are derived using the average of the last 5 sales recorded on Market Movers.
Collector’s Corner
(Recommended Reads)
Here are some articles around the hobby and the sports we follow that caught our eye.
Thanks for Reading!
That’s it for this month’s State of the Hobby. Now it’s your turn: jump into the comments and tell us what you’re seeing—what storylines you’re following, how you see the market moving, and what you’d like us to track next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover the hobby.
If you enjoyed this edition, make sure to subscribe to The Hobby Wire. Along with our monthly State of the Hobby, we drop 2–3 posts each week containing player spotlights, collector insights, product reviews, and market trends. All to keep you plugged into what’s happening right now in the hobby.
We’ll be back with more hobby chatter next month—until then, the floor is yours.
— The Hobby Wire Team
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from Market Movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here I am, just enjoying the hobby recap like only The Hobby Wire does, and I find our "Comeback Collector's Roadmap" article in their Recommended Reads section! Hot dog! Thanks, fellas, much appreciated. You do a phenomenal job with your newsletter.