This month’s State of the Hobby is a little different.
December tends to be quiet. Everyone’s off for the holidays, and news moves slow. Instead of chasing day-to-day updates, we’re taking a step back to recap 2025 and give you a look at what’s coming in 2026.
Spoiler: The rules are about to change.
Sports Roundup
Here’s a quick-hit version of our usual sports updates so you’re not left in the dark this month.
Football
The Super Bowl Winner is anybody’s guess. No Chiefs means no clear favorite.
Drake Maye looks like the MVP front-runner. This is not the time to buy new Drake Maye cards. If you already own his cards, consider selling soon. You can always pick them back up during the offseason lull.
Basketball
Thunder and Spurs are showing up strong. Cooper Flagg is talented but overpriced in the card market. Jokic is out for a month. Could be a good buying opportunity.
Baseball
Crickets. Tucker and Bichette haven’t signed. Tatsuya Imai went to the Astros for less than expected. His rookie cards will likely debut in 2026 Topps Series 2 or Bowman, so keep an eye out.
2025 In Review
2025 was a big year for the hobby. Some might say its biggest yet.
We saw record-breaking market growth and sales activity. Card Ladder reported over $305 million in July alone. Big numbers like this bring new money into the hobby and get people like Kevin O’Leary talking about “trading cards as alternative assets”.
Fanatics/Topps is two-thirds of the way to completing its monopoly on licensed sports cards, when their first licensed release of Topps Basketball hit shelves this fall. Demand was insane for the product. When Topps Chrome released, prices of hobby boxes doubled on the secondary market. Next year, Topps gets to make licensed football cards, completing the trifecta.
The demand for card grading saw new heights this year, the bulk of which being TCG instead of sports cards. People poured cash into PSA, enough for Collectors (PSA’s parent) to buy Beckett by year-end. That leaves CGC as the last major grading company not under their umbrella.
Towards the end of the year, we saw a lot of stories about bad actors and shill bidding. However, with no indictments, we’re tuning it out…for now.
2026: Why the Letter “K” Will Shape the Hobby
It’s 2026 and Sports cards are now being compared to alternative assets—think crypto, wine, or fine art. New money is flowing in, and that’s going to shake up the hobby. But not all assets are equal.
By no means are we comparing owning a piece of cardboard with Ken Griffey Jr’s face on it to owning something like real estate. There’s a difference: stability.
Real estate is stable and regulated. A house won’t drop to zero overnight. There is no regulation or stability in trading cards. A superstar rookie today can be worth nothing tomorrow (Wander Franco). The pricing volatility and lack of regulation in the card market make it a much riskier asset to hold.
People throw cash at riskier stuff when the economy feels safe. Right now? Not so much.
At the start of 2026, the economy is mixed. Unemployment and inflation are ticking up, and the average person is tightening their belt. At the same time, stock prices are hitting new highs, and sports cards are still selling for millions. That’s a classic K-shaped economy: the rich keep getting richer while the rest struggle.
What this means for Sports Cards
We think 2026 is going to bring a little bit of weird into the hobby. We’re betting that we’ll even start to see a K-Shaped economy of our own.
The new money entering the space has been that of the upper class, those less likely to be affected by inflation. Because of this, retail prices of wax and secondary prices on high end cards will likely remain unchanged or even go up.
Lower income collectors won’t be looking to spend as much until the economy starts to look stronger in general. We think this will lead to less liquidity for your common base cards, inserts, and non-superstar cards.
So What’s the Play?
Here’s our game plan for each part of the hobby.
Wax & Breaking
We buy wax at The Hobby Wire—in part so we can give our readers our opinion on the latest releases, but mostly because we think it’s fun to rip open a box and see what we get.
High-income buyers and group breakers are driving the market, so expect retail and hobby box prices to stay the same or even go up.
If you want wax in 2026, you’ll need to bite the bullet on the price.
Singles
Expect a divide. High-end cards remain strong, commons and low-end cards may stall.
Our Strategy:
High-end hits: Sell them ASAP or grade them for auction.
Lower-end superstar cards: Buy while undervalued. They may be cheaper now but could pop later.
Grading
PSA is still king. Despite your opinions on how they run their business, 2026 will not be the year to start trying out new grading companies.
The main question you’ll have to ask yourself when grading this year is “Am I in on this card short term or for the long haul?”.
Short-term: Only grade superstar autos, low numbered parallels, and high-end hits.
Long-term: Consider undervalued parallels or base cards of rising stars. Today’s $400 card could be $800 in a booming economy.
Collecting
For collectors, 2026 is the time to scoop commons. Liquidity may be lower, but prices should drop too. Perfect for completing PC sets, insert runs, or checklists.
Bottom Line
2026 won’t be boring. The hobby is getting new players, new money, and new rules. High-end cards will likely stay strong, low-end cards may wobble, and knowing the bigger picture can help you play smarter—whether you’re collecting, breaking, or investing.
Stay sharp, know your comps, and as always—have fun.
Upcoming Wax Releases
Slow month for new releases.
2025 Panini Prizm Football - 01.09.26
2025 Bowman Draft Baseball - 01.14.26
2025 Donruss Optic Football - 01.14.26
2025 Topps Museum Collection Baseball - 01.23.26
*Release dates are gathered from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Thanks for Reading!
That’s it for this month’s State of the Hobby. Now it’s your turn: jump into the comments and tell us what you’re seeing—what storylines you’re following, how you see the market moving, and what you’d like us to track next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover the hobby.
If you enjoyed this edition, make sure to subscribe to The Hobby Wire. Along with our monthly State of the Hobby, we drop around a couple posts each week—player spotlights, collector insights, product reviews, and market trends to keep you plugged into what’s happening right now in the hobby.
We’ll be back with more hobby chatter next month—until then, the floor is yours.
— The Hobby Wire Team
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.
I have cards from the 80s that I would like to sell. I don't have enough money/space for today's stuff. Diehard MLB fan since 1974.
Prizm Might be the biggest release of the year, very excited. I saw Cardcollector 2 got his hands on some blasters early this week. Excited to see where the Hobby goes in 2026, I think over production is an issue, probably why only SSP, Numbered and RPAs etc are the way to go. You guys have an online store where you do breaks? I would get in on some for sure.