Welcome back to The Hobby Wire — the newsletter for collectors, investors, and everyone trying to make sense of this wild hobby.
Each month, we take a step back and look at where the sports card world actually stands—what’s been moving the market, what’s on deck, and where collectors should keep their eyes peeled.
February kept us busy. Let’s rip in.
Previously on The Hobby Wire…
We spent a lot of February under the hood. Starting with the unofficial kickoff to the hobby calendar — the release of 2026 Topps Baseball Series One. We broke down the pack odds and built a dynamic tool that tracks your expected spend depending on what card type you're chasing. We call it the Wax Value Index, and it's the first of many. If you haven't dug into it yet, it's worth your time.
The Hobby Wire Wax Value Index
Ripping wax will always be fun. Understanding the math behind it just makes you sharper.
Around the Hobby
PSA raised their prices and turnaround times again. If you've lost count of how many times that's happened recently, same. As usual, hobby Twitter was divided. Some are calling for a mass migration to CGC, the last major independent grading company still standing as a real alternative. Others aren't going anywhere, and honestly, it's hard to argue with them. At the end of the day, the PSA 10 still commands top dollar. Until that changes, the calculus stays the same.
Record-breaking card sales aren’t a headline anymore. They’re becoming a recurring segment.
February’s big one: a PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Card sold for $16.5 million. These cards were originally awarded to winners of a Japanese illustration contest back in 1998, making them about as scarce as it gets in the hobby. For sports card collectors, this is in the territory of a PSA 10 T206 Honus Wagner.
But the sale didn’t happen in a vacuum. Logan Paul, the card’s owner, and Ken Goldin of Goldin Auction House turned it into a full media event. They put a lot of eyes on a card that 99% of the hobby could never afford, and they used the moment to announce their next moves. Paul is launching a breaking company called RipIt; the buyer, A.J. Scaramucci, is starting a site documenting his hunt for the world’s rarest collectibles. Smart marketing on all fronts. Whatever you think of the personalities involved, they know how to run a room.
Basketball
The All-Star break is behind us. It’s a straight shot to the playoffs from here.
The Eastern Conference is top-heavy, but the story nobody saw coming is the Detroit Pistons making a push for the 1 seed with team basketball anchored by Cade Cunningham. The hobby has noticed. Cade’s Silver Prizm Rookie is sitting at $107 raw, up 88% in the last 30 days. That kind of movement on a rookie Prizm is a signal worth paying attention to.
Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic is back doing Jokic things. Even after missing time with injury, he’s forcing his way into the MVP conversation for the sixth consecutive season. His 35/20/12 line against Golden State wasn’t an outlier — it was just another Sunday.
MVP Odds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — -140
Nikola Jokic — +270
Cade Cunningham — +500
Rookie of the Year Odds
Cooper Flagg — -400
Kon Knueppel — +270
VJ Edgecombe — +7000
Football
The Seattle Seahawks are your 2025 Super Bowl Champions. If you like defense and field goal kicking, this game was for you.
Kenneth Walker III walked away as the MVP of the game His PSA 10 Prizm is at $95, up 18% since game day. That bump is real, but we’re not sure it’ll get much higher than this. Worth watching how it holds over the next 30 days.
The hobby has already moved on from Sam Darnold. His cards are down 27% since the victory. Seems like collectors got swept up in the hype of the title run. Turns out it wasn't a Darnold market. Just a Seahawks market.
Now the offseason storylines take over. Are the Dolphins in a rebuild? What does the John Harbaugh era look like in New York? How will Jerry Jones piss off Cowboys fans this year?
These are the questions that will keep us up at night.
🤓 FUN FACT: The Seahawks' Super Bowl appearance continues a genuinely strange streak. The last three times a new Pope was elected, Seattle went to the Super Bowl as the 1 seed. We're not saying there's a connection, but we're not not saying it either.
2026 MVP Odds
Josh Allen — +550
Lamar Jackson — +650
Patrick Mahomes / Justin Herbert / Joe Burrow — +1000
Baseball
We thought this day would never come. Baseball is back.
Teams have reported to Florida and Arizona, and the hobby is just starting to wake up. March brings us MLB’s version of the Dream Team at the World Baseball Classic, plus a first look at the prospects who could define the 2026 rookie class before Opening Day even arrives.
There’s one name already on everyone’s lips: Konnor Griffin. The 19-year-old out of the Pirates organization has collectors buzzing about whether he’s the bat Pittsburgh desperately needs to give Paul Skenes some run support. The market is betting on it. His 1st Bowman Refractor is at $312, up 60% since January 1st. That’s a lot of hype to live up to, but Bowman prospects are always priced on potential. Sometimes it pays off.
MVP Odds
NL
Shohei Ohtani — -125
Juan Soto — +757
AL
Aaron Judge — +225
Bobby Witt Jr. — +550
CY Young Odds
NL
Paul Skenes — +225
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — +500
AL
Tarik Skubal — +350
Garrett Crochet — +425
Rookie of the Year Odds
NL
Konnor Griffin — +280
JJ Wetherholt — +425
AL
Trey Yesavage — +370
Munetaka Murakami / Carter Jensen / Kazuma Okamoto — +600
Upcoming Wax Releases
A quieter month on the release calendar, but a few worth circling:
2025-26 Topps Three Basketball — 03.05.26
2025 Bowman’s Best Baseball Hobby Box — 03.06.26
2026 Topps Heritage Baseball — 03.18.26
2025 Panini Prizm Black Football — 03.18.26
2025 Panini Prizm WNBA — 03.25.26
2026 Topps Series 1 Baseball Celebration Mega Boxes — 03.26.26
Release dates sourced from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Watchlist Check-In
We picked Bulls forward Matas Buzelis as our NBA season buy back in October. You can follow the full play in our Flip or Flop series. Here's where things stand:
This take was aging like milk. Now it’s nearly yogurt. 🙃
Matas Buzelis
Recommended 10.16.25 — $428.20
Current Price — $168
Down 60.76%
Price comparison uses the Silver Prizm/Refractor chrome rookie — the most accessible benchmark across price points. Prices based on the average of the last 5 sales recorded on Market Movers.
Collector’s Corner
(Recommended Reads)
A few articles from around the hobby caught our eye this month — including some sharp strategies for searching eBay more effectively. Worth a look.
Thanks for Reading!
That’s a wrap on the March State of the Hobby. Now it’s your turn. Jump into the comments and tell us what you’re watching, how you’re reading the market, and what you want us to dig into next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover the hobby.
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We’ll be back next month. Until then, the floor is yours.
— The Hobby Wire Team
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from Market Movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seems incredible that a player can be at -125 to win the MVP. Just another example of Ohtani’s dominance of this era.