Welcome back to The Hobby Wire — the newsletter for collectors, investors, and everyone trying to make sense of this wild hobby.
At the start of each month, we take a step back and look at where the sports card world actually stands—what’s been moving the market, what’s on deck, and where collectors should keep their eyes peeled.
Compared to March, April felt a little steadier. Let's rip in.
Previously on The Hobby Wire…
First, a quick shoutout to everyone who’s jumped on a paid subscription. It means a lot, and we try to make it worth every penny. Paid subscribers get an extra article each week, typically dropping on Wednesdays.
This Wednesday, we put the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospect List under the microscope, specifically whether being named the #1 Prospect actually signals anything useful for collectors. The results were pretty eye-opening. We’ll leave it at that and let the article do the talking.
In April, we finally got to put a bow on our grade and flip series, “Flip or Flop”. Those who have read our previous State of the Hobbies will pretty much know what the outcome is already.
We also finally closed out our grade-and-flip series, Flip or Flop. If you’ve been following our State of the Hobbies, you’ve probably already guessed how it ended.
And April kept us busy with what might be two of the biggest releases of the year: Topps Chrome Football and Bowman Basketball. We put together Wax Value Indexes for both and tried to break down which formats are actually worth your money. Check out our Topps Chrome Football breakdown here, and good luck finding boxes at MSRP at this point.
Around the Hobby
April opened with a lot of noise out of the Topps Industry Conference. Fanatics/Topps came in with a clear message: reestablish the joy of collecting. What does that actually mean? Based on what followed, it means they've found some new ways to appeal to collectors while making sure the money keeps flowing their way. Here are the cliff notes.
Accessible Product
Topps acknowledged that secondary market prices have gotten out of hand and committed to more entry-level releases and value boxes at MSRP. The value box pledge is interesting. We're wondering if it's connected to recent products having fewer packs per box. Those freed-up packs could be redirected into additional wax. Just don't expect more product to mean lower prices.
Redemptions Move to Fanatics Collect
Collectors will now redeem cards through Fanatics Collect instead of the Topps website. The upside: you can list a card for sale at any point during the redemption process, not just after it arrives. There was also talk of "grade guarantees" on big hits in select products. The less-discussed part: putting the redemption process on Fanatics Collect means more transactions staying on their platform out of convenience, and more fees going into their pocket.
Group Break Cards Go Straight to Your Vault
Cards received from group breaks on Fanatics Collect can now be sent directly to your Fanatics vault. Same story. They benefit every time a sale happens on their platform.
The Fanatics Amex Card
This one deserves its own paragraph. Fanatics is launching a co-branded American Express card later this year. Perks include 5% FanCash on collectibles and tickets, 2% FanCash everywhere else, and front-of-line access to select Topps drops. They’re pitching it as a tool for heavy wax buyers or a way for collectors to get access to products they couldn’t otherwise afford.
Here’s a view from another lens: Fanatics is now offering to loan you money to keep buying their product. We’re assuming the APR won’t be pretty. We’ll do a full breakdown when the card launches to see if there’s any value here, but right now? We’re not impressed. If you’re eyeing it, know your limits and be careful with your spending.
Baseball
We’re just past the one-month mark on the 2026 MLB season, and it’s already delivered. The Blue Jays have gone from World Series contenders to sub-.500 in the blink of an eye. The “new look” Mets are sitting at 10-21, the worst record in baseball. The Phillies fired their manager. It’s been a lot.
But the real story of April? The guys everyone wrote off are back.
Mike Trout looked like Mike Trout again in April: 1.8 WAR, 10 homers, and a .999 OPS. He's currently on pace for 50 home runs, which would be a first in an already Hall of Fame career. The hobby has noticed. His 2011 Topps Update rookie in a PSA 10 is up a cautious 13% since Opening Day.
And then there's Yordan Alvarez. .356 BA, 12 HR, an OPS+ of 230. For context: 100 is league average. Yordan’s hitting more than twice as well as the average player. That's an MVP-level metric. His PSA 10 Topps Chrome Rookie Refractor is up 113% since the season started. Collectors are buying in, and given that line, it's hard to argue with them.
MVP Odds
NL
Shohei Ohtani — -350
Ronald Acuna Jr. — +1400
AL
Aaron Judge — +165
Yordan Alvarez — +250
CY Young Odds
NL
Paul Skenes — +200
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — +400
AL
Tarik Skubal — +250
Cam Schlittler — +600
Rookie of the Year Odds
NL
Sal Stewart — +130
Nolan McLean — +270
AL
Munetaka Murakami — +155
Kevin McGonigle — +200
Basketball
The playoffs are here, and there's no shortage of storylines.
OKC is cruising. They're already waiting to find out whether it's the Lakers or Rockets coming out to face them in the semis. On the other side of the west, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs look like the only real competition for the Thunder.
The east is still wide open. The 1-seed Pistons are in trouble with the Magic looking to pull off an upset tonight. The Knicks punched their ticket to the next round after dropping 140 on Atlanta, one of the bigger blowouts in playoff history. And tomorrow night, the Celtics and Sixers give us a Game 7 in the Garden. We'll be watching.
On the awards front: Wembanyama became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, which feels right. The Cooper Flagg vs. Kon Knueppel Rookie of the Year debate is settled. Flagg takes it home, and honestly, we're not surprised. Both Flagg and Wemby's card prices already had the "all-time great" ceiling priced in. Winning the actual trophy didn't move prices much.
NBA Championship Odds
OKC Thunder — -125
San Antonio Spurs — +400
Boston Celtics — +600
Football
For the month of April, the NFL Draft is pretty much all that football fans have to pay attention to.
The Raiders finally got their QB of the future in Fernando Mendoza. The Cardinals grabbed the best running back in the class in Jeremiah Love. Tennessee gave Cam Ward a real weapon in Carnell Tate. And the Rams made a move that surprised a lot of people, anointing Ty Simpson as Matthew Stafford’s eventual successor.
These are the names collectors will be hunting when the 2026 football checklists drop. Keep a cautious eye on them for now.
2026 MVP Odds
Josh Allen — +550
Lamar Jackson — +650
Patrick Mahomes / Justin Herbert / Joe Burrow — +1000
Upcoming Wax Releases
We’re getting an even spread of the three major sports with this month’s releases:
2025-26 Bowman Basketball Mega Boxes — 05.07.26
2026 Bowman Baseball — 05.13.26
2025-26 Topps Hoops Basketball — 05.14.26
2025 Topps Finest Football — 05.15.26
2025-26 Topps Signature Class Basketball — 05.28.26
2025 Topps Chrome Platinum Anniversary — TBD May
Release dates sourced from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Collector’s Corner
(Recommended Reads)
A few articles from around the hobby caught our eye this month.
Thanks for Reading!
That’s a wrap on the May State of the Hobby. Jump into the comments and tell us what you’re watching, how you’re reading the market, and what you want us to dig into next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover this thing. See you next month.
— The Hobby Wire Team
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Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.