Welcome back to The Hobby Wire: the newsletter for collectors, investors, and everyone trying to make sense of this wild hobby.
At the start of each month, we take a step back and look at where the sports card world actually stands. What’s moving the market, what’s on deck, and what’s worth your attention over the next 30 days.
Someone paid $8.04 million for a Cooper Flagg card last month.
Let’s rip in.
Previously on The Hobby Wire…
Bowman bookended our September. We opened with 2026 Bowman Chrome Baseball, a decent Flip in our book thanks to a rookie class that's carrying the checklist, and closed with 2026 Bowman Football, where we landed on Rip Lightly. Both went through the Wax Value Index once the odds dropped. C.J. Stroud and Pete Crow-Armstrong got the Collector’s Case Study treatment. And we spent a lot of time thinking about slabs. Some napkin math for comping SGC and Beckett against PSA. Then, 100 comps putting the hobby’s favorite PSA rules to the test.
The New York Mets' nightmare of a season gave us an idea. Juan Soto kept putting up solid numbers. His cards fell anyway. We tracked 24 cards from six superstars stuck on bad teams across the three major sports to find out when this type of dip is actually a buy. Turns out it only works for one kind of player.
Good Player / Bad Team
We are eight games away from this nightmare of a New York Mets season finally being over. At 70-84, they’ve already been eliminated from playing in the postseason. Now they just play for pride.
Around the Hobby
The three biggest chase cards out of 2025-26 Topps Chrome Update Basketball hit the auction block, and all three shattered the previous Rookie Debut Patch Autograph record set by Paul Skenes’ RDPA. Dylan Harper’s sold for $2.3 million. Kon Knueppel’s went for $2.8 million. And Cooper Flagg’s? A ridiculous $8.04 million.
With the three biggest hits out of the product, our first question was what that would do to wax prices. Our gut told us we’d see some falloff, since there’s no longer a shot at the million-dollar cards.
That hasn’t happened yet.
Since the Cooper Flagg was pulled on August 10, wax prices have mostly gone up. Where they haven’t climbed, they’ve held relatively flat over the past two months.
It’s kind of baffling to us. Our best guess is that the hobby feels that there are still some top-tier cards to be pulled despite the biggest chases being off the board.
Whether the buyers overpaid or got a good deal is a fair debate. Either way, these sales are a signal. From where we’re sitting, this card market boom isn’t slowing down any time soon.
In grading news, PSA is finally making a dent in the backlog that forced it to suspend its lower-tier value services back in June. With the backlog down to under 10 million cards, PSA felt comfortable enough to add a new tier to its service lineup. Standard Service costs $59.99 per card, covers cards valued at $1,000 or less, and carries an estimated 100-business-day turnaround.
This comes at a time when most grading companies are overwhelmed, mostly thanks to the surge in Pokémon grading, and have been forced to either suspend submissions or sharply raise prices. Right now, the only major grading company with a service under $50 per card is CGC.
Baseball
The regular season is officially over. The Wild Card Series have come and gone. Now the real playoffs begin. By the time the next State of the Hobby comes out, we’ll have a new World Series champion.
The playoffs are a volatile time for the card market. Unless you’re buying right now for a quick flip if a player gets hot, we’d recommend waiting until the offseason to buy cards of anyone on a playoff team.
It was neck and neck until the final weeks of the season, but it’s now looking like Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be our National League MVP. Time to get all our 2026 Topps Chrome cards in order for the MVP Buyback.
For the past few years, Topps has run a promotion where you can turn in Topps Chrome cards of the newly crowned MVP at your local card shop for a set amount of store credit.
If you weren't lucky enough to pull any PCA cards out of Chrome, no worries. You can often find his cards online for a fraction of what your LCS will give you in credit. Right now, you can buy a PCA Refractor for $30 and be given $40 in credit. It isn't your typical card purchase. But it makes for a great way to save on some future releases.
World Series Odds
Dodgers — +200
Brewers — +500
Yankees — +500
Rays — +800
Basketball
NBA tip-off is around the corner. After months of hearing about who was going where, we finally get to see the results.
But, as always, the hobby is most excited to see what this new crop of rookies can do. AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson are all on the brain, especially with their first rookie cards dropping later this month in 2026-27 Topps Flagship Basketball. So who has the hobby’s attention right now?
Card sales from last spring’s Bowman Basketball release say the hobby is locked in on Caleb Wilson. He came into the draft widely considered the best of the rest behind the big three. Then he put together a strong Summer League, and that’s vaulted his cards to new levels before tip-off. His Blue Chrome Prospect Auto is up 261% raw.
We’ll be keeping an eye on him. He could easily become the face of a young Chicago Bulls team.
2026/27 NBA Championship Odds
San Antonio Spurs — +270
OKC Thunder — +270
76ers — +900
Knicks— +900
MVP Odds
Victor Wembanyama — +210
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — +350
Nikola Jokić — +500
Luka Dončić — +550
Rookie of the Year Odds
Cameron Boozer — +300
Darryn Peterson — +330
Caleb Wilson — +350
AJ Dybansta — +425
Football
Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and it already feels like we’re living in the Upside Down. The Raiders are undefeated, and the Browns might actually be a playoff team. The Chargers, on the other hand? Not so much.
The Bolts are 0-3, and the rest of their schedule is diabolical. It’s not out of the question that they stay winless through October too, with the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs to cap off the month. The hobby has noticed and is starting to jump ship. Justin Herbert’s Silver Prizm Rookie PSA 10 is already down 39% in the last 30 days.
We'd hold off on buying the dip here. The Chargers have been too rocky as of late for us to feel confident these prices are going up.
The Giants looked amazing in Week 1 against the Cowboys, but a scary knee injury will keep Jaxson Dart out for the rest of the season.
Since the injury, Dart’s cards have been dropping fast, with his Silver Prizm down 32%. Even the high end is taking a hit.
Longtime readers already know what to do here. 👀
2026 MVP Odds
Josh Allen — +260
Brock Purdy — +425
Lamar Jackson — +600
Patrick Mahomes — +800
Now that Bowman Football is out with Bowman Red Rookie Variations, the hobby has to start caring about who's going to win Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, since the winners' cards can be redeemed for FanCash.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jeremiyah Love — +140
Denzel Boston — +450
KC Concepcion — +1200
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Jacob Rodrigues — +400
David Bailey — +450
Sonny Styles — +700
Upcoming Wax Releases
October’s going to keep us pretty busy writing Wax Watches and making Value Indexes:
2026 Topps Museum Collection Baseball — 10.07.26
2026 Topps Allen & Ginter Baseball — 10.07.26
2026 Topps Update Series Baseball — 10.14.26
2026 Topps Heritage Football — 10.21.26
2026 Topps Holiday Baseball — 10.21.26
2026-27 Topps Flagship Basketball — 10.22.26
2026 Topps Holiday Football — 10.23.26
Release dates sourced from Steel City Collectibles and are subject to change.
Collector’s Corner
(Recommended Reads)
A few articles from around the hobby caught our eye this month.
Fantasy Football Fever has Card Collectors Chasing Their Own Players
— Greg Bates, Sports Collectors Digest
Something for Subscribers 🎁
One more thing before we go.
The Hobby Wire hit one full year last month, and we couldn’t have gotten here without you. Every open, every comment, every share. It all counts.
So we want to say thanks the best way we know how: with some wax.
On October 20, the same night the NBA tips off its new season, we’re launching a subscriber giveaway. The prize is a sealed 2025-26 Topps Basketball Black Friday blaster, the Target exclusive with the Blackout parallels.
Every subscriber gets an entry automatically, free or paid. No forms, no extra steps. Once we launch, you can also earn up to 10 bonus entries by referring fellow collectors.
Full details and official rules drop on tip-off night.
Thanks for Reading!
That’s a wrap on this month’s State of the Hobby. Jump into the comments and tell us what you’re watching, how you’re reading the market, and what you want us to dig into next.
Your feedback shapes how we cover this thing. See you next month.
— The Hobby Wire Team
If you enjoyed this edition, subscribe to The Hobby Wire. Along with the monthly State of the Hobby, we cover player spotlights, product reviews, collector insights, and market trends. Everything you need to stay plugged in.
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Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook, unless otherwise specified.
Good news on our side of the ocean too: since September 15, collectors in the EU can submit directly to PSA in Frankfurt, with the same services as in the US. For us that means no transatlantic round trip and no customs. Have you sent anything in at the new Standard tier yet?