Coming into Series Two, we told you we were skeptical.
If you missed the lead-up, we called our shot in the Series Two Wax Watch, and you can see how the same math played out on the first half of the year in our Series One Wax Value Index.
New to the Index? It uses published pack odds and box configurations to calculate the long-term average spend required to pull a specific card in each format. Update the box prices, the math recalculates, the rankings adjust. Long-term probability, not a guarantee. Variance is always in play. Download it for yourself. You can learn exactly how to use it by clicking here.
What the Numbers Say
A quick honesty note before we dig in. There are a ton of formats this time around. We plugged in concrete numbers wherever we had them, but we had to do some guesswork on the prices for Floor Display Packs, Display Boxes, Bulk Packs, the Japan Edition, Fanatics Fest Hobby, and Fanatics Fest Value. We based those price estimates on what Series One looked like and what 2025 Series Two had going for it. Treat anything tied to those formats as an educated guess until pricing firms up.
After plugging the full odds sheet into the Index, it looks like our skepticism held up. This release only makes pulling parallels slightly easier than Series One. Slightly.
Base Card Parallels
Another rough one.
Base parallels are still tough pulls here. But Topps did something interesting.
It looks like they’re trying to juice retail a bit more this time around. Take the Gold parallel. In Series One, Hobby Boxes sat at 1:49 while Jumbos came in at 1:13. For Series Two, Jumbo odds slipped to 1:15. That small step back lets them push a few more into retail, which you can see plain as day in the hanger odds, moving from 1:13 down to 1:10.
That matters. A big gripe with Series One was that it felt almost impossible to pull any non-exclusive parallel out of retail. This is Topps’ answer.
So if you’re chasing parallels that are spread across every format, buying hobby is a bad move. Retail has a clear winner this time, and it isn’t particularly close. The best bang for your buck on most parallels is coming from Fat Packs. In Series One, that crown went to hangers.
Fat Packs always make us a little nervous. The cards inside have the least protection in shipping. We might have to make an exception for this release.
There’s still some room for hobby here. If you’re a rainbow purist who has to chase the hobby-exclusive colored Rainbow Foils, Hobby Boxes win every single time.
One more thing we learned. The short-printed rookie cards (McGonigle, Wetherholt, Benge, and Crawford) are brutal pulls this year. Your best shot is the Fat Pack, and even those cough one up just once in every 584 packs. It wasn’t long ago that Rookie SPs were case hits. Now they’re rarer than that.
Inserts
Same headline.
Fat Packs win outright for inserts available across all formats, with expected spend coming in significantly lower than the rest of the field. Mega Boxes are a decent play too if you want your cards a little more protected in transit.
Take note. The new Diamond Dust chase card is Hobby Exclusive. You’ll need a Hobby or Jumbo Hobby box for a shot, and based on expected spend, Hobby Boxes are the call. But these are monster pulls. We’re talking one in every 2,317 packs. That’s one in every 115 boxes, or one in every 10 cases.
Outside of Diamond Dust, if inserts are your game, avoid hobby formats like the plague. Expected spend runs upwards of 5x what you'd pay going retail.
Autos & Relics
It’s never a shock when Hobby and Jumbo win this category. They’ve got the guarantees. What is a surprise is that for most autos and relics, there’s no clear winner between the two. Jumbos have the edge on base autographs, but once you get to parallels, the expected spend is virtually identical.
The 1/1s break the tie. Consistently, the best expected spend numbers are coming out of Jumbo Hobby Boxes.
These days, plenty of folks are priced out of hobby formats altogether. If retail is the game you have to play, there’s only one option in this category: the Fat Pack.
For autos and relics, steer clear of Value Boxes.
One caveat. The Fanatics Fest Hobby Box ranked high here too, but since we had to guess on the price, we’re not confident calling it. If those boxes end up selling for $100 more, the equation changes entirely.
Popular Chase Cards
At release pricing, the following formats show the lowest average spend for the most popular chases:
Gold Parallels — Fat Packs
Short-Printed Rookies — Fat Packs
Golden Mirrors — Fat Packs
All Aces — Fat Packs
All Kings — Fat Packs
1952 Variations — Fat Packs
Diamond Dust — Hobby Boxes
Heavy Lumber — Fat Packs
Real One Autos — Jumbo & Hobby Boxes
City Connect Swatches — Hobby Boxes
These rankings will shift as sealed pricing adjusts.
Because again, the odds stay fixed. The market doesn’t.
Most Valuable Format?
There’s a pretty clear winner here. If we were handed one format to buy for all of Series Two, it has to be the Fat Pack. Best expected spend across damn near everything. As always, if you’re hunting autos, go hobby. But the Fat Pack isn’t a bad option there either.
Looking under the hood gave us more than just the best format to rip, though. It gave us a new verdict.
Print runs are looking just as high as Series One. The hits have only been slightly redistributed. That’s a real concern for us. It’s never a good time when you’re ripping mostly base, no matter what format you choose. So we’re downgrading our original verdict to Singles Only. It’s the only way to make the math make sense.
To be clear, naming a Most Valuable Format is the job of this Index, not a green light to bust cases. If you’re set on ripping anyway, the Fat Pack is where your dollars stretch furthest. If you just want the cards, the secondary market is the smarter play.
We’ve got a few hobby boxes to crack into early next week. Fingers crossed we get proven wrong.
👉 New Verdict: Singles Only
🏆 Most Valuable Format: Fat Packs
The hobby moves fast.
Clarity is an edge.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete’s Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.