Welcome to Wax Watch — The Hobby Wire’s quick-hit preview of upcoming releases before they hit shelves. We break down what the product is, who you’re chasing, and whether it’s worth ripping, stashing, or skipping.
Today, we’re digging into one of the most anticipated releases of the year: 2025–26 Topps Chrome Basketball.
The Lowdown
Release Date:
All Formats — 12.18.25
The Hobby has been salivating over this release since it was announced.
Topps Chrome Basketball is back, and Fanatics/Topps has been pulling out all the stops. The 300 Base Set features veterans and legends of the game as well as a 50 player rookie class.
There are 28 different insert sets, ranging from very accessible to legitimately tough pulls — which means breakers will love it, but set builders might get frustrated. This product will also have parallels aplenty, with some being exclusive to retail and some hobby only.
There is a lot of excitement around this release. After pre-orders closed, Hobby and Jumbo boxes doubled in value almost overnight — a clear signal of just how much demand this release is carrying.
Chase Card to Know: There are plenty of chases in 2025-26 Topps Basketball. But the one we’ve seen advertised the most coming up to release day is the new Gold NBA Logoman Relic.
It was announced before the season that the reigning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year would be wearing gold NBA logos on the backs of their jerseys. Topps has put a few of these into cards for us all to chase.
This year’s honorees are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Evan Mobley, and Stephon Castle. Each has a relic-only card numbered out of 4 along with one 1/1 Logoman Auto.
Realistically, the MVP and ROY versions are going to carry the most weight here. The hobby has never cared much about DPOY. That probably won’t change now.
Talent Watch
These are the rookies driving most of the hobby interest in this checklist.
Cooper Flagg, Forward - Dallas Mavericks
Flagg’s been on radar since high school, labeled a “five-tool” forward with superstar upside. Collectors are already paying north of $250 for his base flagship.
Dylan Harper, Shooting Guard - San Antonio Spurs
Harper joins Victor Wembanyama and reigning ROY Stephon Castle in San Antonio’s growing core. He’s a smooth shot creator with real playmaking potential — the kind of guard that collectors and breakers alike tend to latch onto.
Ace Bailey, Guard - Utah Jazz
Maybe the biggest boom-or-bust name in this class. The flashes at Rutgers were undeniable, but scouts have quietly raised questions about consistency and motivation. If he hits, he hits big — if not, we could be staring at a very familiar, Ben Simmons–type arc.
VJ Edgecombe, Shooting Guard - Philadelphia 76ers
Edgecombe came out of nowhere. The 20 year old guard out of Baylor was breaking 76ers records left and right in his first week. He’s cooled down some, but he’s still averaging 15 points per game and shooting 38% from deep.
Kon Knueppel, Small Forward - Charlotte Hornets
There are already talks of Kon Knueppel dethroning LaMelo Ball for the face of the Hornets franchise. It took a second, but now after 26 games, he’s averaging 19 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
💰 Box Breakdown
Not all boxes are created equal. Here, we break down the formats available for this release, the MSRP or pre-sale price for each, how many cards come in a box, and the resulting $/card.
Hobby Box: $639 / 80 cards per box → $7.99 per card
1x Auto, 6x Refractors, 4x Prism Refractors, 4x Add’l Parallels, 12x Inserts
Jumbo Hobby Box: $1,378 / 132 cards per box → $10.44 per card
3x Autos, 6x Refractors, 5x Add’l Parallels, 16x Inserts
Breaker’s Delight Hobby Box: $1,200 / 10 cards per box → $120 per card
2x Autos, 3x Numbered Parallels, 2x Inserts, 3x Base Refractors
Retail Mega Box: $84.99 / 42 cards per box → $2.03 per card
2x Refractors, 1x Prism Refractor, 2x RayWaves, 10 X-Fractors, 3x Inserts
Retail Blaster Box: $49.99 / 28 cards per box → $1.78 per card
1x Refractors, 2x Red White & Blue Parallels, 2x Add’l Base Parallels, 2x Inserts
Hanger Box: $20 / 15 cards per box → $1.34 per card
Exclusive Pulsar Parallels
🎯 Verdict
Is this Rippable, Stashable, or Junk Wax?
At The Hobby Wire, we keep it simple:
Rippable → A product you should bust down the door of your local shop or retail store to rip right away. The checklist, price, and excitement all line up.
Singles Only → Product pricing is way off base, but the checklist is decent enough to pick up a few singles in the secondary market.
Stashable → Not the flashiest release, but worth grabbing a box or two to tuck away. Time will tell if the rookie class or prospects pan out.
Junk Wax → Hard pass. Either overpriced, overproduced, or saddled with a weak class — leave it on the shelf.
2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball really forced our hand.
We’ve seen enough of this rookie class to know that there will be at least a couple guys with star power for the foreseeable future. Cooper Flagg is getting better and better everyday and VJ Edgecombe looks like he was always meant to play at this level. But holy cow, the dollar-per-card is ludicrous!
The wax is simply too expensive to rip or stash responsibly — but it’s far from junk. We think the move here will be to wait a month and see what singles prices look like on the secondary market.
Retail at MSRP might be the only truly rippable option here. But we’d wait until the odds get released before we pull the trigger.
As always, we’ll see what we can find in the wild and report back.
👉 Verdict: Singles Only
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.