Welcome to Wax Watch — The Hobby Wire’s quick-hit look at upcoming releases before they hit shelves. We break down what the product is, who you’re chasing, and whether it’s worth ripping, stashing, or skipping.
Today, we’re digging into 2025 Bowman Draft Baseball.
The Lowdown
Release Dates:
Hobby Box — 01.14.26
Jumbo Hobby Box — 01.14.26
Breaker’s Delight — 01.14.26
Mega Box — 01.28.26
Prospectors, rejoice! The third and final installment of Bowman’s flagship release cycle drops tomorrow. Coming later than usual, 2025 Bowman Draft rounds out the year following the releases of Bowman Baseball and Bowman Chrome.
Bowman Draft showcases the potential stars of tomorrow. Historically, this is the product that delivers the 1st Bowman cards of the No. 1 overall draft pick, along with the newest wave of MLB draftees fresh off draft night.
This year’s edition features a 200-card base set highlighting 2025’s top draft picks alongside some of the game’s hottest prospects. As usual, those cards are mirrored by chrome variations with a typically smaller print run.
Chase Cards to Know: Bowman Draft is still searching for its definitive modern chase. This year, Topps makes a strong push with Gold Ink Autographs, limited to only 15 copies. Their sleek, luxurious design should have collectors and investors alike salivating over this new chase.
Also returning this year are redemptions for one of the chunkiest cards in the hobby: Draft Lottery Ping Pong Ball Autographs. Each card includes an authenticated ping pong ball pulled during the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery by the team that selected the player, paired with an on-card autograph. It’s weird, it’s unique, and we think it works.
Talent Watch
These prospects are driving most of the hobby interest in this checklist.
Eli Willits, SS - Washington Nationals
Most expected the Nationals to take Ethan Holliday at No. 1. Then, the new front office zagged and took high school shortstop Eli Willits. Already polished and instinctive, Willits has the athleticism and feel to develop into Washington’s long-term answer at shortstop if everything clicks.
Tyler Bremner, RHP - Los Angeles Angels
Selected second overall, Bremner brings a nasty changeup and above-average control for his age. His profile points toward a realistic ceiling as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. In his final college season, he posted a 3.49 ERA with 111 strikeouts.
Kade Anderson, LHP - Seattle Mariners
Anderson led the NCAA with 180 strikeouts last season, and Seattle may have landed another elite arm for an already loaded pitching pipeline. His four-pitch mix and unique movement give him a real shot to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Seth Hernandez, RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have had tremendous success drafting pitchers in recent years, coming away with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Bubba Chandler. Seth Hernandez looks to be their next addition to that young rotation of elite arms. He’s young, armed with a fastball that can touch 100 mph, and pairs it with a devastating changeup. His 0.39 ERA out of high school earned him Gatorade’s National Baseball Player of the Year honors.
Billy Carlson, SS - Chicago White Sox
Carlson is widely viewed as one of the best defensive shortstops to come out of high school in years. A former pitching prospect turned infielder, he has potential to be a perennial gold glove contender. The bat remains the question. But scouts believe there’s more power in the swing than the current profile suggests.
One notable omission from the checklist is Rockies shortstop Ethan Holliday. Topps appears to be holding his 1st Bowmans for 2026 Bowman Baseball, expected later this spring.
💰 Box Breakdown
Not all boxes are created equal — especially at these price points. Here, we break down the formats available for this release, the MSRP or pre-sale price for each, how many cards come in a box, and the resulting $/card.
Hobby Box: $749.95 / 384 cards per box → $1.95 per card
3x Chrome Prospect Autos, 1x Sky Blue Chrome Parallel, ~23x Refractors/Parallels, 4x Axis Inserts, 4x Prized Prospects Inserts, 2x Draft Night Inserts, 1x Bowman I Action Insert
Jumbo Hobby Box: $1,249.95 / 600 cards per box → $2.09 per card
5x Autos, ~40x Refractors/Parallels, 5x Axis Inserts, 5x Prized Prospects Inserts
Breaker’s Delight: $974.95 / 10 cards per box → $97.50 per card
3x Autos
Mega Box: $99.95 / 35 cards per box → $2.86 per card
2x Exclusive Mega Chrome Packs (featuring 10x Chrome Mojo Parallels), 2x Chrome Prospects Laser Refractors
*Jumbo pricing pulled from eBay due to limited availability elsewhere.
🎯 Verdict
Is this Rippable, Stashable, or Junk Wax?
At The Hobby Wire, we keep it simple:
Rippable → A product you should bust down the door of your local shop or retail store to rip right away. The checklist, price, and excitement all line up.
Singles Only → Product pricing is way off base, but the checklist is decent enough to pick up a few singles in the secondary market.
Stashable → Not the flashiest release, but worth grabbing a box or two to tuck away. Time will tell if the rookie class or prospects pan out.
Junk Wax → Hard pass. Leave it on the shelf. Either overpriced, overproduced, or saddled with a weak class.
Prospectors love Bowman Draft.
Boxes tend to go up in value as soon as even a few names from the checklist reach the majors. 2021 is a prime example. Outside of Jackson Merrill, it was a fairly average class, yet sealed wax has still doubled on the secondary market.
This year, prices have already ballooned up since the initial Topps preorder, pushing Hobby Boxes into Jumbo-level pricing while delivering an unappealing dollar-per-card. That’s especially tough to justify given that the most hyped prospect in the class — Ethan Holliday — isn’t even in the checklist.
Because Bowman mixes both paper and chrome stock, we like to see dollar-per-card land closer to $1.50. It should be easy to sell a paper 1st Bowman for $1 and a Chrome 1st for $2. Right now, none of the formats hit that benchmark.
For the last few years, Bowman Draft has been way out of our price range. The addition of Mega Boxes helps, but only slightly. If they’re anything like the Bowman Chrome ones, while the Mojo packs add some flash, the remaining packs are base-only — no inserts, no color, no autos. It’s a limited rip, and the hobby doesn’t care about the laser parallels.
If you can afford the entry point, the Hobby Box offers the best dollar-per-card. Mega Boxes technically win on dollar-per-hit at $8.33, but that comes with real trade-offs.
For now, we’ll hope Hobby pricing cools off. In the meantime, we’ll rip a couple of Megas and maybe put one away, betting on development and continued hype for these prospects.
👉 Verdict: Rippable & Stashable
🏆 Most Valuable Format: Hobby Boxes (If you can afford them)
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.