Welcome to Wax Watch — The Hobby Wire’s quick-hit preview series breaking down upcoming releases before they hit the shelves. We cover what the product is, who you’ll be chasing, how the formats stack up, and whether it’s worth ripping, stashing, or skipping. Think of it as your pulse check on new wax — fast, focused, and collector-first.
Today, we’re digging into the highly anticipated 2025 Topps Chrome Update Baseball.
The Lowdown
Release Dates:
All Formats - 12.10.25
The MLB season is long with tons of moving parts. Free Agents get sign, players get traded, and rookies get the call. These moves are largely captured by Topps end of year “update” releases.
This year you’ll see players like Rafael Devers in a Giants uniform, late-April call-up (and Rookie of the Year) Nick Kurtz, and other season-shifting moves. We more or less know what’s coming because we saw these updates in flagship last month — but now they get the coveted chrome treatment plus product-exclusive inserts.
This year’s release sports a 200 card base checklist, slimmed down from the 350 card flagship update set.
Chase Cards to Know: Chrome Update’s surge in demand over the past few years comes down to one thing: the ultimate modern chase card.
The Rookie Debut Patch Auto is the ultimate rookie card. This one of one card is not only signed by the player, but also contains a debut patch they wore in their first ever MLB game.
Collectors instantly fell in love with these when these debuted. The Paul Skenes’ debut patch auto sold at auction for over $1 Million!
Talent Watch
Here are some of the hottest rookies we’re hoping to pull from our packs.
Nick Kurtz, 1B/OF - Athletics
Everyone thought Jacob Wilson was the safe bet for Rookie of the Year — then Nick Kurtz exploded onto the scene. After a late-April call-up, he hit .290 with 36 HR and a 1.001 OPS, good for over 5 WAR. The newly crowned AL Rookie of the Year is the clear headline rookie in this class and the name most collectors will be chasing.
Cade Horton, P - Chicago Cubs
The Cubs took Horton high in the 2022 draft, and his big-league debut didn’t disappoint. After the All-Star Break, Cade was hurling the pill like 2015 Jake Arrieta, finishing 11–4 with a 2.67 ERA. Pitchers are always a tougher long-term hobby hold, but Horton’s stuff and postseason potential give him more juice than most arms.
Cam Smith, RF - Houston Astros
Best known as the prospect the Cubs traded for Kyle Tucker, Smith’s strong spring had Chicago fans nervous they’d made a mistake. His regular season cooled off a bit, but at 22, there’s still plenty of hobby upside.
Matt Shaw, 3B - Chicago Cubs
Shaw worked hard to become the everyday third baseman for the Chicago Cubs. While the offensive numbers never seemed to get there, his defense was surprisingly good. Unless rumors are true and the Cubs go after Alex Bregman, expect him to be the regular starter at the hot corner for the next few years as the Cubs bank on his offense coming around.
Drake Baldwin, C - Atlanta Braves
The newly crowned NL Rookie of the Year hit a very respectable .274/.341/.469, with 19 home runs and 80 RBIs. For his hype to stick into next season, Baldwin needs to take the next step — most likely with more power.
Dalton Rushing, C - Los Angeles Dodgers
Rushing might be one of the most underrated names in the set. He’s good enough to start for 27 of 30 MLB teams — but he happens to play behind Will Smith. The Dodgers rarely sit still, so don’t be shocked if Rushing becomes trade bait. If he moves, he’s cleared for takeoff.
💰 Box Breakdown
Not all boxes are created equal. Here, we break down the formats available for this release, the MSRP or pre-sale price for each, how many cards come in a box, and the resulting $/card.
Hobby Box: $344.56 / 80 cards per box → $4.31 per card
1x Auto, 2x Numbered Base/Insert Parallels, 12x Inserts
Jumbo Hobby Box: $713.79 / 132 cards per box → $5.41 per card
3x Autos, 3x Numbered Base/Insert Parallels, 14x Inserts
Breaker Delight Hobby Box: $620.25 / 12 cards per box → $51.69 per card
2x Autos, 3x Numbered Parallels, 1x 1990 Topps Chrome Geometric Parallel, 3x Refractors
Retail Mega Box: $69.99 / 42 cards per box → $1.67 per card
2x Refractors, 1x Base Prism Parallel, 2x RayWave Parallels, 10x X-Fractors, 4x Inserts
Retail Blaster Box: $39.99 / 28 cards per box → $1.43 per card
1x Refractor, 1x RayWave Parallel, 4x Sepia Parallels, 2x Inserts
🎯 Verdict
Is this Rippable, Stashable, or Junk Wax?
At The Hobby Wire, we keep it simple:
Rippable → A product you should bust down the door of your local shop or retail store to rip right away. The checklist, price, and excitement all line up.
Stashable → Not the flashiest release, but worth grabbing a box or two to tuck away. Time will tell if the rookie class or prospects pan out.
Junk Wax → Hard pass. Either overpriced, overproduced, or saddled with a weak class — leave it on the shelf.
👉 Verdict: Rippable/Stashable
We went back and forth on this one.
The product is exciting, but after Nick Kurtz, the rookie class gets thin fast — realistically only two to three players deep. Under normal circumstances that would cap the upside, but the Rookie Debut Patches from headliners in Series 1 and 2 inject real chase value and help soften the weaker class.
The issue is the secondary-market markup. At current prices, it’s hard to justify hobby or jumbo — the dollar-per-card just isn’t there.
Retail, however, looks much more appealing. Mega boxes feel like the sweet spot: more parallels, better upside, and only a marginal price jump over blasters.
We’re also eyeing retail as a long-term stash. Last year’s Chrome Update is a perfect example. After Yamamoto’s historic World Series run (and with his Rookie Debut Patch still unredeemed), mega boxes spiked to around $247 on the secondary market. That’s a 3.5x return.
If the Nick Kurtz, James Wood, or Roki Sasaki Debut Patches don’t surface early, we could see a similar trajectory here. There’s a real chance this wax climbs as the chase builds.
Bottom line: Rip Hobby only if you landed direct pricing. Rip and stash retail while it’s cheap. Avoid the current Hobby and Jumbo markups.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.