Welcome to Wax Watch — The Hobby Wire’s quick-hit look at upcoming releases before they hit shelves. We break down what the product is, who you’re chasing, and whether it’s worth ripping, flipping, or skipping.
Series 1 and Series 2 both landed at Singles Only by the time we were done with them. The problem with the first two was that even the most common hits were insanely tough to pull due to massive print runs. Now the final Flagship release of Topps’ 75th anniversary year drops tomorrow, and the odds sheet came out early enough to roll our Wax Value Index right into this preview.
Can 2026 Topps Update Series Baseball fix what the first two couldn’t?
Let’s rip in.
The Lowdown
Release Dates:
All Formats — 10.14.26
Update started as Topps’ fix for the mid-season roster shuffle. “Traded” subsets showed up in 1974 and 1976, and the 132-card Topps Traded boxed set followed in 1981. It became Traded & Rookies in the early 2000s, then went pack-based in 2005 as Updates & Highlights. Today it’s the third leg of Flagship.
That lineage has produced some of the most iconic cards in the hobby. The 1982 Traded Cal Ripken Jr. The 1986 Traded Barry Bonds. The 1989 Traded Ken Griffey Jr. The 2011 Update Mike Trout.
Update is one of Topps’ most accessible products. From the internet to your local Walmart. Cases upon cases of this stuff get produced every year.
This year, the base set clocks in at 350 cards: 195 veterans, 85 rookies, 40 Rookie Debut cards, 16 Veteran Combos and 14 Season Highlights. That’s 125 rookie-tagged cards, headlined by the first Flagship RCs of players called up to the show mid-season.
There’s non-sport content in the mix, too. First Pitch features Manny Pacquiao, and the 75 Years of Topps Autographs checklist includes Billy Crystal, Jesse Eisenberg and Kat Dennings.
Chase Cards to Know
All 350 base cards have a Golden Mirror Variation. Flagship Real One Golden Mirror Autographs run 131 signers deep, from Griffin and McGonigle to Judge, Ohtani and Skenes.
Starting this year, Series 1, Series 2 and Update are the exclusive home of the 1952 Rookie Variations. Update’s version covers 25 of the top rookies in the class, including Griffin, McGonigle, Wetherholt and Bazzana. You can pull autographed versions, too.
All Kings. Fifteen “elite position players featured on playing card-inspired designs,” per Topps. Nine of them are rookies. Three current stars and three legends round it out. There’s also the even rarer All Aces insert. Same concept, but with the focus on pitchers.
Collectors should also keep an eye on Home Field Advantage, Heavy Lumber, Cover Athletes and Topps Black Gold, a longtime Update favorite.
Talent Watch
These rookies are driving nearly all of the hobby interest in this checklist.
Kevin McGonigle, SS - Detroit Tigers
2026 Stats: 7.1 WAR, .278 AVG, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 126 OPS+
This kid sees the baseball like he’s been in the league ten years. He just doesn’t chase, and pitchers figured that out fast and stopped giving him anything to hit. He was an All-Star at 21. The approach is already there, and the power is the last piece to show up. When it does, you’re talking about a perennial MVP-type shortstop.
Konnor Griffin, SS - Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 Stats: 2.1 WAR, .272 AVG, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 23 SB, 98 OPS+ (80 games)
Everybody had him as the best prospect in the game coming into the year. He debuted as a teenager, doubled in his first at-bat, and the Pirates handed him a nine-figure deal about a week later. The bad news is his body didn’t cooperate. The bat is still catching up to the tools, but the tools are loud.
Travis Bazzana, 2B - Cleveland Guardians
2026 Stats: 2.7 WAR, .245 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 19 SB, 110 OPS+
He was the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, and he plays like it. He didn’t come up until late April and still got voted onto the All-Star team by the players. Good eye, some sneaky pop, and he can run. This is a professional hitter. He could be leading off in Cleveland for a long time.
JJ Wetherholt, 2B - St. Louis Cardinals
2026 Stats: 4.5 WAR, .242 AVG, 17 HR, 51 RBI, 14 SB, 102 OPS+
If you only read the box score, you’ll miss him. His game lives on defense. He was one of the best defenders in baseball at any position this year. The Cardinals saw enough to lock him up through 2034. The glove gives him a high floor. Whether he becomes a star depends on the consistency of his bat.
Honorable Mentions:
Roman Anthony (Red Sox), Jac Caglianone (Royals), Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers), Samuel Basallo (Orioles), Kyle Teel (White Sox), Cam Schlittler (Yankees), Jonah Tong (Mets), Colson Montgomery (White Sox), Bubba Chandler (Pirates), Chase Burns (Reds), Payton Tolle (Red Sox), Chase DeLauter (Guardians), Munetaka Murakami (White Sox), Trey Yesavage (Blue Jays), Bryce Eldridge (Giants), Tatsuya Imai (Astros), Sal Stewart (Reds), Justin Crawford (Phillies), Carson Benge (Mets)
💰 Box Breakdown
Not all boxes are created equal, especially at these price points. Here's the format breakdown, MSRP or pre-sale price for each, cards per box, and the resulting cost per card.
Hobby Box: $199.95 / 240 cards per box → $0.83 per card
1x Autograph or Relic, 1x Silver Pack
Hobby exclusive colored Rainbow Foil parallels, Clear Variations and Mystical inserts
Jumbo Hobby Box: $374.95 / 400 cards per box → $0.94 per card
1x Autograph, 1x Relic (can be replaced by a second autograph), 2x Silver Packs
Jumbo Exclusive Sandglitter HTA parallels, Hobby exclusive colored Rainbow Foil parallels
Japan Exclusive Box: $125.00* / 240 cards per box → $0.52 per card
Exclusive Cherry Blossom Foil, Hobby exclusive colored Rainbow Foil parallels, and 1991 Topps Koi Fish parallels
Super Box: $39.99 / 146 cards per box → $0.27 per card
1x Oversized Base Card, plus a Silver Crackle Foilboard pack or Funko Bitty Pop
Club Super Box (Costco): $39.99* / 184 cards per box → $0.22 per card
1x Oversized 1991 Topps Baseball Card
Value Box: $24.99 / 72 cards per box → $0.35 per card
Exclusive Holiday Base Card Variations
Fanatics Value Box: $29.99 / 96 cards per box → $0.31 per card
Exclusive Topps Logo Foil Pattern parallels, Fanatics Authentic memorabilia redemptions
Hanger Box: $14.99 / 59 cards per box → $0.25 per card
Exclusive Diamante Foil parallels
Fat Pack: $6.99 / 36 cards per pack → $0.19 per card
*We had to make a call on the Japan Exclusive and Club Super Boxes with no pricing confirmed yet. Both prices are estimates based on Series 2. Treat them as educated guesses until we see real listings.
Two things jump out right off the bat.
The good news is that no matter what format you want, each one falls under our $1.00 per paper card threshold.
The bad? True colored Rainbow Foil parallels are hobby exclusives. Once again, this is Topps making you pay a premium to have access to the cards everyone wants.
Jumbo Boxes have the most guaranteed, with an auto and a relic plus two Silver Packs. That’s one fewer relic than last year, and people are griping over the Fanatics and Topps decision to cut it. We don’t share that opinion. So far, they’ve only removed the manufactured relics.
Then there’s the Club Super Box. The Costco exclusive has been getting a lot of hype over the past few releases, with collectors pulling plenty of hits from it. We’ll have to see for ourselves when we break down the odds. But we’re starting to feel the FOMO.
📈 Wax Value Index
Now let's dig in. With the odds sheet in hand, we're looking to see which format delivers the most value.
(New to our Wax Value Index? Check out our guide on how to use it yourself. Prices for wax can swing overnight, and having the framework makes a real difference.)
What the Numbers Say
It looks like Topps tried to right the wrong of leaving certain formats as dry as can be for the better part of a year.
Looking at the bigger picture, we’re seeing more parallels and inserts per box across most formats, and an often overlooked format might be one of the most valuable this time around.
Base Card Parallels & Variations
There are a ton of format exclusives in Flagship. From Diamante in Hangers to Sandglitter in Jumbos. Almost every format has its own set of exclusives.
But of the parallels and variations shared across every format, Fat Packs have the lowest expected spend, though the Club Super Box isn’t too far behind. Where Fat Packs lead by a wider margin is on some of the bigger chase cards. Golden Mirror variations and 1952 Rookies included.
What’s even more surprising is that hobby formats look downright terrible for pulling these same chases. They rank among the worst in expected spend for Golden Mirrors, 1952 Rookies, True Photo Variations and Player Number Variations. To pull a Golden Mirror, you’d need to open about half as many Fat Packs as hobby packs, and spend well under half the money. That’s roughly $2,300 in Fat Packs against about $6,100 in Hobby.
Where hobby does win is the true colored Rainbow Foil. Of the three formats that carry them, Hobby Boxes and the Japan Exclusive Box are much easier on the wallet. Jumbos nearly double the expected spend every time.
The hit rates add another layer. Hobby Boxes average about one more parallel per box compared to what we saw out of Series 1 and 2, and they’re pulling 2.6 numbered cards per box. Value Boxes are also getting this treatment, with almost five parallels per box (about three of those are the Holiday variations). It’s as if Topps is trying to juice the products people have spent the past year saying aren’t very good.
But when parallel counts go up somewhere, they usually have to come down elsewhere. The format that takes the biggest hit is the Jumbo Hobby, dropping from over 13 parallels per box in Series 2 to just over 10 on average.
In retail, numbered cards come out at the best clip in the Super Boxes. Regular Super Boxes average one in about every 1.5 boxes, and Club Super Boxes do even better at one in every 1.3.
Looking at dollar per parallel, the Fanatics Box comes out on top, largely because of the exclusive Topps Logo Foil that shows up in every other pack. But when you look at dollar per numbered card, Hangers and Fat Packs actually run away with it.
Inserts
Retail dominates the insert value space.
Fat Packs are the cheapest in terms of expected spend, with Club Super Boxes a close second. Once again, retail outpaces hobby when it comes to the biggest chases. All Aces and All Kings come out of Fat Packs at a little over a third of the cost of pulling them from Japan Exclusive and Hobby Boxes.
If you’re as big a fan of the Black Gold insert as we are, you’ll be looking for Club Super Boxes and Fat Packs. Club Supers are the cheapest route to the base version. Fat Packs win every parallel.
There are also fewer exclusive parallels within the insert lineup this time. The biggest change on the hobby side, though, is Mystical. It was a common insert in Update last year, and the year before that. Now it’s a hobby-exclusive SSP.
From the hit rates, most formats are pulling more inserts per box. The biggest change is the Super Box, going from an average of just under 17 per box in Series 2 to over 20 per box here.
The exception is the Hanger. Inserts per box dropped from 4.9 in Series 2 to 3.3 here, so you’re more likely to pull three out of a hanger instead of five.
The Club Super Box wins on dollar per insert at $1.73. If you’re an insert collector trying to build the set, you should probably turn to retail. In Hobby and Jumbo Boxes, you’re paying over $10 per insert.
Autos & Relics
Jumbo is by far the winner in the auto category. Unless Jumbo prices shoot way up on the secondary market, this is usually the case.
What’s unique about this release is that Hobby Boxes aren’t in their usual second-place spot. The basic Super Box is actually slightly cheaper for a lot of autos. Formats to stay away from for autos are the Fanatics Box, the Value Box and the Club Super Box.
Line by line, it’s pretty much the same story with relics. One twist. The incredibly rare Iconic Buyback redemption cards are best found in a Fanatics Box. The 75th Anniversary Gift redemptions follow the usual order: Jumbo, then Hobby Boxes.
One in about three Hobby Boxes has an auto. Jumbos are averaging 1.75 relics per box. Some of those are autographed relics, but it could still mean a surprise second relic about half the time.
Hobby and Jumbo have pretty much stayed the same in terms of auto rates. But Value Boxes got juiced big time here. In Series 2, we were looking at one auto in every 92 Value Boxes. For Update, it’s one in every 36. Same thing for relics, now landing in one of every 17 Value Boxes.
The trade-off? Autos and relics are tougher to pull out of Hanger Boxes. Might put a damper on the whole “Hangers are Bangers” mantra.
For collectors priced out of hobby this year, Fat Packs have the cheapest dollar per auto in retail. If relics are your thing, the basic Super Box is the play. Its dollar per relic is the lowest of any retail format.
Popular Chase Cards
Based on the current odds, here are the formats offering the lowest expected spend for these specific chase targets:
True Colored Rainbow Foil — Hobby Boxes
Golden Mirror Variations — Fat Packs
Golden Mirror Legend Variations — Fat Packs
1952 Rookie Variations — Fat Packs
Home Field Advantage — Fat Packs
All Aces/Kings — Fat Packs
Base Black Gold — Club Super Boxes
Black Gold Parallels — Fat Packs
Golden Mirror Autos — Jumbo Hobby Boxes
1952 Rookie Autos — Jumbo Hobby Boxes
Iconic Buybacks — Fanatics Boxes
These rankings will shift as sealed pricing adjusts.
The odds stay fixed. The market doesn’t.
🎯 Verdict: Rip, Flip, or Skip
At The Hobby Wire, we like to keep it simple.
Rip → The checklist, price, and excitement all line up. Bust down the door.
Flip → Solid class, but prices are too high to rip comfortably. Buy singles on the players you want. For wax, grab a box or two to sit on and sell in a year or two once the rookie class starts to prove itself.
Skip → Junk Wax. Hard pass. Overpriced, overproduced, or saddled with a weak class.
The way Flagship has gone across multiple sports this year, particularly with hobby boxes, has made us wary about how enjoyable it’s going to be to rip some Update. But the odds sheet gives us something to go on, and the numbers give us a reason to let our guard down a tad.
The bigger reason for optimism is the checklist. This is one of the best MLB rookie classes since 2018, and it raises the floor for Update. Adding Konnor Griffin and Travis Bazzana only strengthens an already stacked checklist.
Combine better hit rates with an A+ rookie crop and an affordable product, and you’ve got yourself a Rip.
Can Update fix what the first two couldn’t? It looks like Topps is certainly trying here. But we’ll get the full answer when we can crack a few boxes of our own.
So where should you be ripping?
Chasing autos? Go Jumbo. Parallels and bigger variations? Go Fat Packs or Club Super Boxes, and Hobby for the parallel purists. Inserts or set building? Load up on Club Super Boxes. Fun rip on a budget? Either of the Super Boxes. They don’t win outright, but we wouldn’t sleep on them either with this release.
On a personal note, we love the Diamante parallels that are exclusive to retail hangers. We’ll be looking to pick some of these up as well to help complete the set.
For Most Valuable Format, it comes down to two. Jumbo Hobby is the Auto and Relic King. Fat Packs have the SSP inserts and variations locked down. Not to mention most non-exclusive parallels.
Last year, in our 2025 Topps Update Wax Watch, we wrote, “Prices should dip heading into the 2026 season, especially with next year’s rookie crop looking stacked.”
This is that crop.
👉 Verdict: Rip
🏆 Most Valuable Format(s): Jumbo Hobby Boxes & Fat Packs
⛔️ Format to Avoid: Fanatics Box
Which 2026 Topps Update format are you grabbing first? Drop your thoughts in the comments.
Disclaimer: The content in The Hobby Wire is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Commentary, analysis, and opinions on sports cards, rookies, and the hobby are not financial, investment, or professional advice. Collectors should always do their own research before buying, selling, or trading cards. Market values are volatile and can change rapidly—past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Unless specified, all pricing references are based on the Prizm/Refractor parallels of an athlete's Chrome rookie card, with prices from market movers, alt.xyz & 130pt.com.
Any odds mentioned were derived from DraftKings Sportsbook.